Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea
04/21/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.8
1.4
1:1
13%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
The Lab
- 1Chelsea with Cole Palmer: 0.4 goals/90 min. Without: 7.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Brighton & Hove Albion: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 3Brighton & Hove Albion with Carlos Baleba: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Chelsea: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
28%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Tight Prediction: The model predicts a slight favorite role for Chelsea with 37%, while Brighton stands at 35%
- Brighton's Form Advantage: Brighton shows significantly stronger form with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games compared to Chelsea
- Head-to-Head Record: Brighton won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters against Chelsea, including the last home match
Risk Factors
- Short Recovery Time: Brighton has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Short Recovery Time: Chelsea has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited Goal Threat Chelsea: Only 69% of the usual starting eleven goal threat is available, as key players like JoĂŁo Pedro and Cole Palmer are not nominated
Overview
Brighton & Hove Albion (9th place, 47 points) host Chelsea (6th place, 48 points) at The American Express Community Stadium
Premier League match on April 21, 2026, 8:00 PM
Both teams are in the mid-table, with Chelsea slightly ahead of Brighton
Form
Brighton is showing good form with 'LWWWD' (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) in their last five games
Their last match ended in a draw
Chelsea, on the other hand, is in a more difficult phase with 'LLWLL' (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses) and lost their last two games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Brighton has scored an average of 1.36 goals per game this season and conceded 1.18 goals
Chelsea showed stronger offense with an average of 1.61 goals per game, but also conceded 1.27 goals
At home, Brighton scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 0.94 goals
Chelsea scored an average of 1.58 goals and conceded 1.11 goals away
The American Express Community Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton recorded 3 wins and Chelsea 2 wins
Brighton scored a total of 11 goals, while Chelsea scored 8 goals
The last encounter was won by Brighton at home with a 3:1 score on September 27, 2025
Brighton has shown dominance in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Brighton, Pascal GroĂ is a key player with a season average rating of 7.24 and 3 assists in his last 5 games, Mats Wieffer has 2 goals in his last 5 games and a rising form trend, and Kaoru Mitoma scored 2 goals in his last 5 games
Not nominated: Danny Welbeck (12 goals/0 assists) and Diego GĂłmez (5 goals/1 assist)
For Chelsea, Enzo Fernåndez is important with 8 season goals and 3 assists, Pedro Neto with 5 season goals and 4 assists, and Moisés Caicedo with a season average rating of 7.07
Goalkeepers
Brighton will start with Bart Verbruggen, who has 8 clean sheets this season
Chelsea's goalkeeper is Robert SĂĄnchez, who has recorded 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
Brighton's home goals average of 1.33 and 0.94 goals conceded per home game indicate a solid home record
Chelsea's away record shows an average of 1.58 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded per away game
The American Express Community Stadium has averaged 2.0 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of games, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals