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Premier League

Burnley - Manchester City

04/22/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Burnley
1.0
Total xG
3.4
Manchester City
2.4
Most Likely Scores

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

1:1

9%

0:3

8%

1:3

8%
What influences the xG?
BURMC

Burnley

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.61
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap)
-0.17
Lyle Foster on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Lesley Ugochukwu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Hannibal not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Florentino on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Manchester City

Attack strength (1.59x league average)
+1.47
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.23
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Burnley with Loum Tchaouna: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Manchester City with Phil Foden: 8.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Burnley: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Manchester City: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

13%

Draw

19%

Away Win

68%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

32%

Away or Draw

87%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Clear performance gap: Man City (2nd place) faces relegation candidate Burnley (19th place)
  • Form difference: Man City with three consecutive wins, while Burnley suffered three losses
  • Historical dominance: Man City won all 3 head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 11:2
Risk Factors
  • Limited recovery: Both teams had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Burnley's low attacking threat: Averaging only 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 games
Overview

Burnley (19th place, 20 points) host Manchester City (2nd place, 67 points) at Turf Moor

Premier League match on April 22, 2026, 8:00 PM

Manchester City are vying for the championship, while Burnley are fighting against relegation

Form

Burnley showed poor form in their last five Premier League games with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses (LDLLL)

Manchester City, on the other hand, presented good form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (DLWWW)

Burnley recently suffered three consecutive losses

Manchester City secured three consecutive wins

Statistics

Burnley averages 1.03 goals scored and 2.03 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per game

Manchester City averages 2.03 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Manchester City scores an average of 2.08 goals and concedes 1.31 goals

Turf Moor has seen an average of 2.8 total goals per game in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Burnley has not secured any wins

Manchester City won all 3 encounters

The goal difference of 11:2 clearly favors Manchester City

The last meeting ended 5:1 for Manchester City on September 27, 2025

Manchester City dominated recent encounters

Key Players

For Burnley, Zian Flemming stands out with 9 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 games

Jaidon Anthony recorded 7 season goals and 1 assist but remained goalless in the last 5 matches

Quilindschy Hartman contributed 5 season assists, with 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Manchester City, Erling Haaland leads with 23 goals and 7 assists, scoring 5 goals in his last 5 games

Rayan Cherki provided 4 season goals and 10 assists, showing rising form with 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games

Nico O'Reilly scored 5 season goals and 3 assists, contributing with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games to a rising form

Goalkeepers

Burnley's goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka kept 4 clean sheets this season

Manchester City's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma recorded 13 clean sheets

Influences

Burnley scores an average of 1.0 goals at home and concedes 1.67 goals

Manchester City scores an average of 2.08 goals away and concedes 1.31 goals

The last five games at Turf Moor showed an average of 2.8 goals per game

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