Premier League
Sunderland - Nottingham Forest
04/24/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%2:1
9%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
The Lab
- 1Sunderland with Wilson Isidor: 6.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Nottingham Forest with Ryan Yates : 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Sunderland: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Sunderland: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Sunderland: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
31%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Sunderland has a 40% win probability and a higher predicted goal difference of 1.33 to 1.09
- Current form: Nottingham Forest is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Sunderland suffered 3 losses
- Home strength: Sunderland's home defense concedes only an average of 0.67 goals per game
Overview
Sunderland (11th place, 46 points) host Nottingham Forest (16th place, 36 points) at the Stadium of Light
Premier League match on April 24, 2026, 8:00 PM
Sunderland aims to solidify their mid-table position, while Nottingham Forest seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Sunderland's form across all competitions is LLWWL
The home team records 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games
The last encounter resulted in a loss for Sunderland
Nottingham Forest's form across all competitions is WDDWW
The away team has achieved 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games
Nottingham Forest is unbeaten in their last two matches
Statistics
Sunderland scored an average of 1.09 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.21 goals over the season
At home, Sunderland scores an average of 1.10 goals and concedes only 0.67 goals per home game
The team kept 10 clean sheets
Nottingham Forest scores 1.09 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals on average
Away from home, Nottingham Forest scores 1.06 goals and concedes 1.41 goals per away game
The away team kept 8 clean sheets
An average of 2.0 goals per game are scored at the Stadium of Light
Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between the two teams so far
Nottingham Forest won the last game on September 27, 2025, with a score of 1:0
Key Players
For Sunderland, Enzo Le FĂ©e shows good performance with 4 goals and 5 assists, and a season rating of 6.95
Brian Brobbey is an important offensive player with 6 goals and 1 assist
Granit Xhaka contributes to midfield strength with 1 goal and 5 assists
Not selected: Chemsdine Talbi (4G/1A)
For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White is currently in very good form with 12 goals and 2 assists and a season rating of 7.01
Igor Jesus has scored 4 goals and 3 assists, with an average rating of 6.75
Neco Williams, a defender, scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists
Not selected: C. Hudson-Odoi (3G/4A)
Goalkeepers
Robin Roefs is Sunderland's goalkeeper with an average rating of 7.01 in 30 appearances
Sunderland has kept 10 clean sheets this season
Matz Sels is Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.74 in 26 appearances
Nottingham Forest has managed to keep 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
Sunderland benefits from home advantage at the Stadium of Light with an average of 1.10 home goals and only 0.67 home goals conceded
The stadium saw an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches at the Stadium of Light
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches