đŸŽó §ó ąó „ó źó §ó ż

Premier League

Manchester United - Brentford

04/27/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Manchester United
2.0
Total xG
3.8
Brentford
1.8
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
MUBRE

Manchester United

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.65
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Matheus Cunha not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists)

Brentford

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+0.87
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Rising form (2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.10
Jordan Henderson not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester United: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Manchester United: 86% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Manchester United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Brentford with Kristoffer Ajer: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Manchester United: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 12)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

23%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

73%

Under 2.5

27%

Over 3.5

52%

Under 3.5

48%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

73%

No

27%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a relatively low home win probability of 41% for Manchester United
  • Brentford is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
  • Manchester United averaged 5.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating offensive strength
Risk Factors
  • The low home win probability of 41% for Manchester United according to mathematical analysis suggests a tight contest
  • Brentford shows five consecutive draws in their current form (DDDDD)
  • Limited data available for total duels won in the last 5 games for both teams
Overview

Manchester United (4th place, 58 points) host Brentford (9th place, 48 points) at Old Trafford

The Premier League match takes place on April 27, 2026, 9:00 PM

Manchester United are battling for a European spot, while Brentford aim for a mid-table position

Form

Manchester United's form across all competitions is LWDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This represents 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

Their last result was a 1-0 away win against Chelsea

Manchester United's form trend is described as stable

Brentford's form across all competitions is DDDDD

This is 0 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses in their last five games

Their last result was a 0-0 home draw against Fulham

Brentford's recent form trend is rated as positive

Statistics

Manchester United scores an average of 1.76 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals per game

The team kept 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 24 games

In home games, Manchester United averages 1.72 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded

Brentford scores an average of 1.45 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals per game

The team kept 9 clean sheets and both teams scored in 17 games

In away games, Brentford averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded

At Old Trafford, the average is 3.4 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches (80%)

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches (80%)

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester United secured 2 wins, Brentford also 2 wins, and there was 1 draw

Manchester United scored 9 goals in total, while Brentford scored 10 goals

The last encounter on September 27, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for Brentford

The recent direct match record is even

Key Players

For Manchester United, Bruno Fernandes is a key player with 8 goals and 18 assists this season

His average rating is 7.76, and in the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 4 assists

Casemiro has 8 goals and 2 assists this season, with an average rating of 7.13

Benjamin Sesko contributed 9 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.79

For Brentford, Igor Thiago is the top scorer with 21 goals and 1 assist this season

He has an average rating of 7.13 and scored 3 goals in his last 5 games

Kevin Schade has 7 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.87

Dango Ouattara contributed 5 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.84

Goalkeepers

Manchester United's goalkeeper, Senne Lammens, made 27 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.72

The team kept 6 clean sheets this season

Brentford's goalkeeper CaoimhĂ­n Kelleher made 32 appearances and achieved an average rating of 6.87

Brentford recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Manchester United shows solid performance at home with an average of 1.72 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per game

Old Trafford is known for tending to have many goals, with an average of 3.4 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.