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Premier League

Everton - Manchester City

05/04/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Everton
1.1
Total xG
2.8
Manchester City
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
EVEMC

Everton

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Idrissa Gueye not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Manchester City

Attack strength (1.69x league average)
+0.49
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap)
+0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Everton with Jarrad Branthwaite: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Everton: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Manchester City with Savinho: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Everton: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

27%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Manchester City's excellent form with five consecutive wins contrasts with Everton's three losses in their last five games
  • Manchester City's tactical superiority is evident in their average of 61% possession and 7.0 shots on target in the last five games
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Manchester City with a probability of 50%
Overview

Everton (11th place, 47 points) host Manchester City (2nd place, 70 points) at Hill Dickinson Stadium

Premier League match on May 4, 2026, 9:00 PM

Manchester City is fighting at the top of the table, while Everton is in mid-table

The mathematical analysis sees Manchester City as the winner with 50% probability

Form

Everton shows mixed form across all competitions with "LWDLL" in their last five games

This means 1 Win, 1 Draw, and 3 Losses

Their last two games ended in losses

Manchester City, on the other hand, is in top form with "WWWWW" in their last five games

This means 5 Wins, 0 Draws, and 0 Losses

Manchester City is on an impressive winning streak

Statistics

Everton averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the average is 1.22 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded

Manchester City is offensively stronger with an average of 2.0 goals per game and a stable defense of 0.88 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Manchester City also scores 2.0 goals per game and concedes 1.21 goals

At Hill Dickinson Stadium, an average of 2.0 goals were scored in the last five games

Both teams scored in only 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Manchester City clearly dominated with 4 wins

One match ended in a draw, Everton failed to win any of the duels

The goal difference is 10:2 in favor of Manchester City

The last encounter was won by Manchester City on October 18, 2025 with a score of 2:0

Key Players

For Everton, Beto is an important offensive player with 8 season goals and 1 assist, in rising form with an average rating of 7.21 in the last five games

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall scored 8 goals and 4 assists this season

Iliman Ndiaye contributed 6 season goals and 3 assists to the offense

For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is the top scorer with 24 season goals and 7 assists, in rising form with 5 goals in the last four games

Rayan Cherki stands out in midfield with 4 goals and 10 assists and shows a rising form curve

Nico O'Reilly scored 5 goals and 3 assists this season and is also in rising form

Goalkeepers

Jordan Pickford, Everton's goalkeeper, has played 34 season games and kept 11 clean sheets

Gianluigi Donnarumma of Manchester City played in 30 games and achieved 14 clean sheets

Influences

Everton scores an average of 1.22 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals

Manchester City scored an average of 2.0 goals away and conceded 1.21 goals

At Hill Dickinson Stadium, an average of 2.0 goals were scored per game, and both teams scored in only 20% of the matches

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