Premier League
AFC Bournemouth - Crystal Palace
05/03/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
The Lab
- 1Crystal Palace: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 2Crystal Palace with Brennan Johnson: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 5.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3AFC Bournemouth: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Crystal Palace: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5AFC Bournemouth: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
27%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Critical Squad Impact: Crystal Palace are missing key players, with only 63% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Strong Home Form: AFC Bournemouth is unbeaten in their last 5 games and shows a rising form trend
- Mathematical Prediction: The analysis indicates a home win with approximately 40% probability
Risk Factors
- Limited Recovery: Crystal Palace has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Significant Goal Threat Gap: Crystal Palace has only 63% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, without Jean-Philippe Mateta, IsmaĆÆla Sarr, Adam Wharton, Tyrick Mitchell
- High BTTS Probability: The model predicts a 61% chance of both teams scoring
Overview
AFC Bournemouth (8th place, 49 points) hosts Crystal Palace (14th place, 43 points) at the Vitality Stadium. The Premier League match takes place on May 3, 2026, 3:00 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table, with Bournemouth having a better starting position.
Form
AFC Bournemouth shows good form across all competitions with "DDWWD" (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches. Most recently, Bournemouth drew 2-2 with Leeds United and won 2-1 away against Newcastle United. Crystal Palace recorded a form of "WLDLW" (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) across all competitions. Crystal Palace's away form is inconsistent, with a 3-1 win against Shakhtar Donetsk and a 1-3 loss against Liverpool.
Statistics
AFC Bournemouth averages 1.56 goals per home game and concedes 1.19 goals. Crystal Palace averages 1.11 goals per away game and also concedes 1.11 goals. This season, Bournemouth scored in 23 matches where both teams scored, while Crystal Palace did so in 17 matches. Bournemouth had 20 matches with over 2.5 goals, Palace had 16. The Vitality Stadium has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, AFC Bournemouth has 2 wins, Crystal Palace has 0 wins, and there have been 3 draws. AFC Bournemouth scored 6 goals, while Crystal Palace scored 3 goals. The last match ended in a 3-3 draw on October 18, 2025. The home team has recently dominated head-to-head matches.
Key Players
For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi (11 season goals) and Marcus Tavernier (6 season goals, 4 assists) are important attacking players. Alex Scott (3 season goals, 1 assist) showed improved form in the last five games with an average rating of 7.47. For Crystal Palace, Daniel MuƱoz (4 season goals, 2 assists) is in good form with a last five-game rating of 7.10. Maxence Lacroix (1 season goal, 2 assists) and Jefferson Lerma (2 assists) also contribute to the team's performance.
Goalkeepers
Djordje Petrovic, the goalkeeper for AFC Bournemouth, made 34 season appearances and kept 9 clean sheets. Dean Henderson, Crystal Palace's goalkeeper, played in 32 season matches and achieved 12 clean sheets.
Influences
The Vitality Stadium's grass surface will host this match. Stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 4 out of 5 games at Vitality Stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games.