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Premier League

Arsenal - Fulham

05/02/2026, 04:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Arsenal
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Fulham
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ARSFUL

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.75
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.41
Declining form (1 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.34
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.27
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Martin Ødegaard not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Martín Zubimendi on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Gabriel Martinelli on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Piero Hincapié on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Noni Madueke on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Kai Havertz not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Fulham

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Alex Iwobi not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Josh King on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Muniz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fulham with Harry Wilson: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Arsenal: 79% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Arsenal with Noni Madueke: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

26%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis projects a home win for Arsenal with a 56% probability
  • Arsenal's strong home defense (avg. 0.55 goals conceded) faces Fulham's vulnerable away defense (avg. 2.25 goals conceded)
  • Arsenal's positive home record in head-to-head matches, including their last 1:0 home victory
Risk Factors
  • Arsenal has only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Arsenal's goal production has recently stalled (avg. 1.0 goals), while their season average is 2.2 goals
  • Fulham scores consistently (avg. 1.4 goals per game), which could pose a challenge to Arsenal's defense
Overview

Arsenal (1st place, 73 points) host Fulham (10th place, 48 points) at the Emirates Stadium

Premier League match on May 2, 2026, 5:30 PM

The Gunners are fighting at the top of the table for the championship

Fulham is in the mid-table

Form

Arsenal's form across all competitions is LDLWD

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last five games

Arsenal's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals), with a season average of 2.2 goals

Fulham's form across all competitions is DWLDW

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last five games

Fulham consistently scores (avg. 1.4 goals per game)

Statistics

Arsenal scores an average of 1.88 goals and concedes 0.76 goals per game this season

In home games, Arsenal averages 1.85 goals scored and concedes only 0.55 goals

Fulham scores an average of 1.29 goals and concedes 1.35 goals per game this season

In away games, Fulham averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 2.25 goals

At the Emirates Stadium, an average of 1.6 goals were scored in the last 5 games

In these games, both teams scored in 1 out of 5 matches, and there was 1 out of 5 Over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal secured 2 wins

Fulham won 1 game, and 2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is 7:6 in favor of Arsenal

Arsenal won the last encounter on October 18, 2025, with a 1:0 score

Arsenal has shown dominance in recent direct duels

Key Players

Arsenal's attack is led by Viktor Gyökeres, who scored 12 goals this season and contributed 2 goals in the last 5 games

Midfielder Eberechi Eze scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and has 7 season goals

Declan Rice contributed 4 goals and 5 assists this season

For Fulham, Harry Wilson is the top scorer with 10 goals and 6 assists this season, and recently scored 1 goal in 5 games

Raúl Jiménez scored 9 times and provided 3 assists this season

Samuel Chukwueze recorded 3 goals and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

David Raya is in goal for Arsenal, achieving 16 clean sheets this season

Fulham's goalkeeper Bernd Leno managed to finish 8 games without conceding a goal this season

Influences

Arsenal shows a strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.55 goals

Fulham is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game

At the Emirates Stadium, an average of 1.6 goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches

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