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Premier League

Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur

05/03/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Aston Villa
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Tottenham Hotspur
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
AVTH

Aston Villa

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 18, 13 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Ollie Watkins on the bench (11 goals, 2 assists)
John McGinn not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Emiliano Buendía on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Digne on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists)
Amadou Onana not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 56% available)

Tottenham Hotspur

Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 5, 13 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.10
Xavi Simons not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Cristian Romero  not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Archie Gray on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Dominic Solanke not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aston Villa: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Aston Villa with Tammy Abraham: 10.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Aston Villa: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    Tottenham Hotspur with Djed Spence: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Tottenham Hotspur: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Aston Villa with 55%
  • Form Trend: Aston Villa shows a positive offensive development (1.8 recent goals vs. 1.6 season average), while Tottenham has a negative trend (1.2 recent goals vs. 1.5 season average)
  • Head-to-Head: Aston Villa has achieved 4 wins in the last 5 matches against Tottenham Hotspur, demonstrating historical dominance
Risk Factors
  • Aston Villa is playing with only 57% of their usual starting XI's goal threat
  • Aston Villa had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Tottenham Hotspur is in a relegation spot (18th place) with 34 points
Overview

Aston Villa (5th place, 58 points) host Tottenham Hotspur (18th place, 34 points) at Villa Park

Premier League match on May 3, 2026, 7:00 PM

Aston Villa is fighting for a European spot, while Tottenham Hotspur is in a relegation battle

Form

Aston Villa's form in the last five games (all competitions): DWLL

This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The team has suffered two consecutive losses recently

Tottenham Hotspur's form in the last five games (all competitions): WLLDW

This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Tottenham won their last game after two losses

Statistics

Aston Villa scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game

At home, they score 1.35 goals and concede 0.9 goals per home game

Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.26 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals per game

Away from home, Tottenham scores 1.28 goals and concedes 1.28 goals per away game

Aston Villa kept 9 clean sheets, while Tottenham Hotspur kept 8 clean sheets

At Villa Park, the last 5 games averaged 4.0 goals per match

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the 5 previous head-to-head Premier League matches, Aston Villa has achieved 4 wins

Tottenham Hotspur could only win 1 game, with no draws

Aston Villa scored a total of 9 goals, while Tottenham Hotspur scored 7 goals

The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended with a 2-1 victory for Aston Villa

Aston Villa has been more dominant in recent matchups

Key Players

Aston Villa's Morgan Rogers has shown stable form in the last 5 games with 2 goals and 1 assist, averaging a rating of 7.09

Matty Cash (3 goals, 2 assists this season) shows a declining form trend with a rating of 6.69 in his last 5 games

Youri Tielemans (4 assists this season) maintains stable form with a rating of 7.02 in his last 5 games

Tottenham Hotspur's Richarlison (9 goals, 5 assists this season) is in stable form with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 games, with a rating of 6.88

Pedro Porro (1 goal, 2 assists this season) shows a rising form trend with an impressive rating of 7.78 in his last 4 games

João Palhinha (4 goals, 2 assists this season) scored 1 goal in his last 4 games and has a stable rating of 6.74

Goalkeepers

Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa started in 29 season games and kept 9 clean sheets

He shows a rising form trend with a rating of 7.19 in his last 4 appearances

Antonín Kinský of Tottenham Hotspur played 3 season games and kept 8 clean sheets

His form is stable with a rating of 6.64 in his last 3 appearances

Influences

Aston Villa has scored an average of 1.35 goals in home games and conceded 0.9 goals

The mathematical analysis predicts 1.80 expected goals for Aston Villa

The history at Villa Park shows an average of 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of games at Villa Park, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals

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