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Premier League

Manchester United - Liverpool

05/03/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Manchester United
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Liverpool
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MULIV

Manchester United

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.02
Amad Diallo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Liverpool

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.15
Mohamed Salah not in squad (7 goals, 6 assists)
Alexander Isak not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester United: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Manchester United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Liverpool with Mohamed Salah: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Manchester United: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Manchester United: 46% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Manchester United with a 46% win probability
  • Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Manchester United's home performance (1.74 goals/game) meets Liverpool's vulnerable away defense (1.73 goals conceded/game)
  • Form Trend: Manchester United shows stable form, while Liverpool's recent goal production has been negative
Risk Factors
  • Liverpool are missing Mohamed Salah and Alexander Isak, leaving only 89% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Liverpool's offense has shown a negative form trend in goal production recently
  • Manchester United concedes an average of 1.35 goals per game over the season
Overview

Manchester United (3rd place, 61 points) host Liverpool (4th place, 58 points) at Old Trafford

Premier League match on May 3, 2026, 3:30 PM

The Red Devils aim to consolidate their Champions League spot, while the Reds look to close the gap

Form

Manchester United's form across all competitions is WDLWW

This translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Liverpool's form across all competitions is LWLWW

This represents 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Both teams have recorded two consecutive wins recently

Statistics

Manchester United averages 1.74 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per home game

Liverpool averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per away game

Overall this season, Manchester United averages 1.76 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded per match

Liverpool averages 1.68 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per match

Manchester United kept 6 clean sheets this season, compared to Liverpool's 10

Both teams scored in 25 of Manchester United's matches and 22 of Liverpool's matches

Old Trafford, the venue, sees an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches at Old Trafford, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester United secured 2 wins, Liverpool 1 win, and there were 2 draws

The goal difference in these encounters is 10:11 in favor of Liverpool

The last meeting on October 19, 2025, ended in a 2:1 home victory for Manchester United

Manchester United has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes

Key Players

Bruno Fernandes, Manchester United's midfielder, has scored 8 goals and provided 19 assists this season

In his last 5 games, he contributed 5 assists with an average rating of 7.75

Benjamin Sesko, forward, has 10 season goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Casemiro, midfielder, contributed 9 goals and 2 assists, with 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Florian Wirtz of Liverpool, midfielder, has 5 goals and 3 assists this season

In his last 5 games, he managed 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.10

Cody Gakpo, forward, has 6 season goals and 5 assists, with 2 assists in his last 5 games

Virgil van Dijk, defender, has scored 4 season goals, including 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Manchester United's goalkeeper Senne Lammens shows a rising form with an improvement of 0.31 in his average rating in recent games

Senne Lammens has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Liverpool's goalkeeper Freddie Woodman showed stable form

Liverpool's team achieved a total of 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will take place at Old Trafford on grass

The Old Trafford venue records an average of 3.0 goals per game, with an 80% BTTS rate and an 80% Over 2.5 rate

Manchester United's home strength is evident with 1.74 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per home game

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