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Premier League

Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion

05/02/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Newcastle United
1.5
Total xG
3.6
Brighton & Hove Albion
2.2
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

2:2

7%

1:3

7%

2:1

6%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
NUB&HA

Newcastle United

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.25
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.17
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.14
Anthony Gordon on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
Harvey Barnes on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Jacob Ramsey on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Lewis Hall on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Brighton & Hove Albion

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.09
Diego GĆ³mez not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brighton & Hove Albion: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Brighton & Hove Albion: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 3
    Newcastle United with Anthony Gordon: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Brighton & Hove Albion with Carlos Baleba: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Newcastle United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

23%

Away Win

53%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

47%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Brighton with a 53% probability, with a 76% chance for an away win or draw
  • Brighton's current form is positive with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, whereas Newcastle United has lost all of their last 5 matches
  • Brighton is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.5), while Newcastle United's goal production is stagnant (1.0) compared to their season average (1.8)
Risk Factors
  • Newcastle United averaged only 3.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a limited offensive threat
  • The historical record shows Brighton secured 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 head-to-head matches against Newcastle United, suggesting away dominance
Overview

Newcastle United (15th place, 42 points) host Brighton & Hove Albion (6th place, 50 points) at St. James' Park

Premier League match on May 2, 2026, 3:00 PM

Brighton is fighting for European spots, while Newcastle is in the mid-table

Form

Newcastle United's current form across all competitions is LLLLL

This includes 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses

The form trend is negative

Newcastle's last 5 matches ended in a loss (0-1 against Arsenal), a loss (1-2 against AFC Bournemouth), a loss (1-2 against Crystal Palace), a loss (1-2 against Sunderland), and a loss (2-7 against FC Barcelona)

Brighton & Hove Albion's current form across all competitions is WWWDW

This includes 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses

The form trend is positive

Brighton's last 5 matches ended in a win (3-0 against Chelsea), a draw (2-2 against Tottenham Hotspur), a win (2-0 against Burnley), a win (2-1 against Liverpool), and a win (1-0 against Sunderland)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Newcastle United scored an average of 1.35 goals per game this season and conceded 1.47 goals

In home games, Newcastle scored 1.36 goals and conceded 1.27 goals

The team recorded 8 clean sheets and had both teams score in 22 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 22 matches

Brighton & Hove Albion scored an average of 1.41 goals per game this season and conceded 1.15 goals

In away games, Brighton scored 1.40 goals and conceded 1.47 goals

The team recorded 9 clean sheets and had both teams score in 20 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches

St. James' Park saw an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle United recorded 0 wins, Brighton & Hove Albion recorded 3 wins, and there were 2 draws

Newcastle scored 4 goals, while Brighton scored 7 goals

The last direct encounter on October 18, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton is noted as the recently dominant team in head-to-head fixtures

Key Players

For Newcastle United, Bruno GuimarĆ£es is a key player with 9 season goals and 4 assists, maintaining stable form

William Osula showed stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games, having scored a total of 4 goals this season

Lewis Miley contributed 1 goal and 4 assists this season, with a slightly declining form trend

For Brighton & Hove Albion, Danny Welbeck is in rising form with 13 season goals and 3 goals in the last 5 matches

Pascal GroƟ is an important midfielder with 1 season goal and 3 assists, including 3 in the last 5 games, showing stable form

Kaoru Mitoma scored 3 season goals, with 2 in the last 5 matches, and is showing rising form

Goalkeepers

Nick Pope of Newcastle United played 23 season matches, with Newcastle keeping 8 clean sheets

Bart Verbruggen of Brighton & Hove Albion played 34 season matches, with Brighton keeping 9 clean sheets

Influences

St. James' Park has shown a high average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches

Both teams scored in all 5 matches at St. James' Park, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle United scores an average of 1.36 goals per home game and concedes 1.27 goals

Brighton & Hove Albion scores an average of 1.40 goals per away game and concedes 1.47 goals

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