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Benfica – St. Gallen5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Benfica
0.85
Total xG
1.67
St. Gallen
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Benfica | St. Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.15 | |
| Attack strength (2.27x league average) | +1.86 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.71x league average) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Benfica averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- St. Gallen played counter-oriented with 43% possession and averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- St. Gallen are unbeaten in five matches and won their last encounter against Benfica
Risks
- Restricted data availability on player statistics for this match
- St. Gallen travel with only 4 days of rest since their last match
- The model predicts a low probability of 24% for over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Benfica32%
Draw38%
St. Gallen30%
Double chance
Benfica or draw70%
St. Gallen or draw68%
No draw62%
Goals
Over 1.552%
Under 1.548%
Over 2.524%
Under 2.576%
Over 3.59%
Under 3.591%
Both teams score
Yes34%
No66%
Most likely scores
0:0
20%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
14%
2:0
7%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- Benfica: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- St. Gallen: 95% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Benfica: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · St. Gallen 3-5-2
Benfica
- 1 A. Trubin
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 4 A. Tavares Silva
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 14 V. Pavlidis
St. Gallen
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 26 T. Gaal
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 14 A. Balde
- 7 C. Witzig
Substitutes
- 17 A. Dedić
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 20 R. Rios
- 9 F. Ivanović
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 44 T. Araújo
- 16 M. Silva
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 73 Miguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo
- 31 D. Besio
- 35 B. Dumrath
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 47 E. Owusu
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 81 Y. Bujard
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 68 M. Heydari
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