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Europa League

Benfica - St. Gallen

07/30/2026, 07:00 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Benfica
0.9
Total xG
1.7
St. Gallen
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

20%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

14%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
BENSG

Benfica

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-2.15
Attack strength (2.27x league average)
+1.86
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average)
+0.13
Full strength squad available

St. Gallen

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.42
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.20
Attack strength (1.71x league average)
+0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Benfica: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 3
    St. Gallen: 95% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Benfica: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

38%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

52%

Under 1.5

48%

Over 2.5

24%

Under 2.5

76%

Over 3.5

9%

Under 3.5

91%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

62%

Both Score

Yes

34%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • Benfica averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • St. Gallen played counter-oriented with 43% possession and averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • St. Gallen are unbeaten in five matches and won their last encounter against Benfica
Risk Factors
  • Restricted data availability on player statistics for this match
  • St. Gallen travel with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • The model predicts a low probability of 24% for over 2.5 goals
Overview

Benfica host St. Gallen at the EstƔdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Europa League match on July 30, 2026, 8:00 PM

A crucial continental fixture for both clubs

Form

Benfica show mixed form with two wins, two draws, and one loss (WDDWL)

St. Gallen are in excellent shape with four wins and one draw in their last five matches (WWDWW)

The visitors travel with two consecutive wins under their belt

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Benfica average 2.18 goals scored and 0.74 goals conceded per game this season

St. Gallen average 1.89 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per match

Benfica are strong at home, averaging 2.16 goals scored per home fixture

Head-to-Head

Only one head-to-head encounter has been recorded between these teams

St. Gallen won that single match 2-1 on July 23, 2026

Benfica scored one goal while St. Gallen scored twice

Goalkeepers

Anatoliy Trubin starts in goal for Benfica with 14 clean sheets this season

Lukas Watkowiak is in goal for St. Gallen, whose team kept 8 clean sheets overall

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the EstƔdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

The venue history averages 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the historical matches played at this stadium

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