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Europa League

St. Gallen - Benfica

07/23/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
0.9
Total xG
1.6
Benfica
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

21%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

0:1

12%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
SGBEN

St. Gallen

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.22
Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.91
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

Benfica

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-2.31
Attack strength (2.55x league average)
+2.08
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.18
Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)
-0.33
-0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)

  • 2
    St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 3
    St. Gallen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Benfica: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    St. Gallen: 84% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

38%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

50%

Under 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

22%

Under 2.5

78%

Over 3.5

8%

Under 3.5

92%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

62%

Both Score

Yes

32%

No

68%

Key Factors
  • Benfica is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.0)
  • Both teams averaged strong offensive outputs in recent games with 6.0 (St. Gallen) and 6.4 (Benfica) shots on target
  • St. Gallen averages 1.94 goals at home, but faces a highly stable Benfica defense conceding just 0.8 goals per away match
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches and player form statistics
  • St. Gallen concedes 1.35 goals on average at home, presenting a risk against Benfica's dangerous away attack averaging 2.2 goals
  • St. Gallen's recent goal scoring has slowed down (1.6) compared to their season average of 2.0
Overview

St. Gallen host Benfica at Kybunpark

Europa League match on July 23, 2026, 8:00 PM

Mathematical model estimates St. Gallen win probability at 38%

The draw is at 38% while a Benfica away win stands at 24%

Form

St. Gallen's recent form is WLWWD with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Advanced stats show St. Gallen's scoring has slowed down to 1.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.0

Benfica's form is WWDDW with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses

The visitors are currently scoring more frequently with 2.6 goals on average compared to their season average of 2.0

Form-Codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Gallen averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded this season

In home matches St. Gallen's average rises to 1.94 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Benfica averages 2.18 goals scored and only 0.74 goals conceded per game

Away from home Benfica shows a strong record of 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded

Goalkeepers

Lawrence Ati Zigi starts in goal for St. Gallen with 8 clean sheets this season

Anatoliy Trubin guards Benfica's goal with 14 clean sheets recorded so far

St. Gallen secured 6 clean sheets at home while Benfica achieved 7 on their travels

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Kybunpark

Stadium history shows an average of 3.0 goals per game and an 80% BTTS rate

St. Gallen averages 1.94 goals at home supporting their home advantage

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