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St. Gallen – Benfica2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
0.94
Total xG
1.63
Benfica
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.31 | |
| Attack strength (2.55x league average) | +2.08 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.22 | |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.91 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Benfica is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.0)
- Both teams averaged strong offensive outputs in recent games with 6.0 (St. Gallen) and 6.4 (Benfica) shots on target
- St. Gallen averages 1.94 goals at home, but faces a highly stable Benfica defense conceding just 0.8 goals per away match
Risks
- Limited data availability for head-to-head matches and player form statistics
- St. Gallen concedes 1.35 goals on average at home, presenting a risk against Benfica's dangerous away attack averaging 2.2 goals
- St. Gallen's recent goal scoring has slowed down (1.6) compared to their season average of 2.0
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen38%
Draw38%
Benfica24%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw76%
Benfica or draw62%
No draw62%
Goals
Over 1.550%
Under 1.550%
Over 2.522%
Under 2.578%
Over 3.58%
Under 3.592%
Both teams score
Yes32%
No68%
Most likely scores
0:0
21%
1:0
17%
1:1
14%
0:1
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)
- St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- St. Gallen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Benfica: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- St. Gallen: 84% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-5-2 · Benfica 4-2-3-1
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 T. Gaal
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 14 A. Balde
- 7 C. Witzig
Benfica
- 1 A. Trubin
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 4 A. Tavares Silva
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 16 M. Silva
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 73 Miguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Substitutes
- 31 D. Besio
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 47 E. Owusu
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 68 M. Heydari
- 47 T. Antunes Gouveia
- 17 A. Dedić
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 9 F. Ivanović
- 84 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 44 T. Araújo
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 58 D. Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 77 G. Carvalho Moreira
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