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Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa

08/23/2026, 01:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.3
Total xG
3.6
Aston Villa
2.3
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%

2:1

5%

0:3

5%
What influences the xG?
B&HAAV

Brighton & Hove Albion

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.90
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.68
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Danny Welbeck not in squad (13 goals, 1 assists)
Yankuba Minteh not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Jan Paul van Hecke not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

Aston Villa

Attack strength (4.29x league average)
+2.67
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 0.3 league avg)
+0.84
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.38
Rising form (3 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.38
Ollie Watkins not in squad (16 goals, 3 assists)
Morgan Rogers not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists)
Lucas Digne not in squad (0 goals, 7 assists)
Youri Tielemans not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 53% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aston Villa with Victor Lindelöf: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Brighton & Hove Albion with Kaoru Mitoma: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Aston Villa: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Aston Villa: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

22%

Away Win

58%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

42%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Critical offensive drop: Aston Villa plays without Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers, leaving only 53% of their goal threat available
  • Form gap: Aston Villa shows a positive trend in recent matches, whereas Brighton is on a negative trend
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 58% win probability for Aston Villa with 2.29 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Brighton plays with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Brighton absences: Danny Welbeck (13 goals) and Yankuba Minteh are missing from the starting lineup
  • Away defensive weakness: Aston Villa concedes an average of 1.69 goals in away matches
Overview

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa on August 23, 2026, at 2:00 PM

Match at The American Express Community Stadium

Aston Villa enters as the favorite with a 58% predicted win probability

The visitors aim to maintain their strong momentum

Form

Brighton's form is struggling: LWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recent match was a 0-0 draw against Tromsø

Aston Villa is in excellent form: WDWWW

Last match was a 2-1 win against Manchester City

Away side with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 outings

Statistics

Brighton averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 conceded this season

Aston Villa averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded

Villa concedes an average of 1.69 goals in away matches

Brighton concedes just 0.91 goals per game at home

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Aston Villa dominant with 3 wins and 1 draw

Last match ended 1-0 in favor of Aston Villa on February 11, 2026

Brighton scored 5 goals while Aston Villa scored 10 in these matchups

Key Players

Jack Hinshelwood scored twice in his last 4 matches for Brighton

Emiliano Buendía is in rising form for Aston Villa with 2 goals and 2 assists

John McGinn has 1 goal in his last 5 appearances for Aston Villa

Goalkeepers

Bart Verbruggen in goal for Brighton with 10 clean sheets this season

Marco Bizot starts in goal for Aston Villa

Aston Villa recorded 9 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

Game played on grass at The American Express Community Stadium

Stadium average of 2.6 goals per game recently

4 out of the last 5 home games saw over 2.5 goals

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