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Premier League

Arsenal - Coventry City

08/21/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Arsenal
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Coventry City
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ARSCC

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.83
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.26
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Leandro Trossard not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists)
Eberechi Eze on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Coventry City

Rising form (3.2 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.28
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arsenal: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)

  • 2
    Arsenal: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Arsenal: 79% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Arsenal with Martin Ødegaard: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Arsenal: 55% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Coventry City averaged 4.8 shots on target per match recently compared to Arsenal's 3.4
  • Defensive strength: Arsenal concedes an average of only 0.5 goals per match at home
  • Squad impact: Arsenal is missing Leandro Trossard and Eberechi Eze, leaving only 78% of their usual goal threat available
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for Coventry City squad statistics
  • Arsenal's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.1
Overview

Arsenal hosts Coventry City at the Emirates Stadium

Premier League match on August 21, 2026, 8:00 PM

Arsenal is in 10th place, Coventry City is in 19th place before the matchday

The model predicts a home win probability of 48%

Form

Arsenal's form trend shows WWWWD with a draw in their last match

Coventry City travels with a form of DDWWW following a win in their last match

Arsenal remained unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw

Coventry City recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Arsenal scored an average of 1.87 goals and conceded only 0.71 goals in the season

Coventry City scored an average of 2.11 goals per match while conceding 0.98 goals

In home matches Arsenal conceded an average of only 0.5 goals per match

Coventry City scored an average of 2.09 goals in away matches

Goalkeepers

David Raya guards Arsenal's goal and contributed to 19 clean sheets this season

Carl Rushworth is in goal for Coventry City and recorded 17 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Emirates Stadium

In the last 5 matches at this venue only 1.2 goals were scored on average

Both teams scored in none of these 5 matches

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