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Premier League

Newcastle United - Liverpool

08/23/2026, 03:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Newcastle United
1.4
Total xG
3.7
Liverpool
2.4
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%

0:3

5%

2:1

5%
What influences the xG?
NULIV

Newcastle United

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.37
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.13
Bruno GuimarĆ£es not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Nick Woltemade on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Jacob Ramsey on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Jacob Murphy on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Dan Burn not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Joe Willock on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Sandro Tonali not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 59% available)

Liverpool

Attack strength (3.61x league average)
+2.67
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 0.3 league avg)
+1.05
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Alexis Mac Allister on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Curtis Jones not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newcastle United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Newcastle United with Sandro Tonali: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Liverpool: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Liverpool: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Newcastle United: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

21%

Away Win

59%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

41%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Liverpool with a 59% probability
  • Liverpool dominated previous encounters with three victories in four matches and a 12:6 goal difference
  • Liverpool recently scored consistently with around 1.8 goals per match and averaged 4.8 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Bruno GuimarĆ£es, Nick Woltemade, Jacob Ramsey, Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, Joe Willock, and Sandro Tonali are missing from Newcastle's squad, leaving only 60% of their typical goal threat available
  • Liverpool displays defensive weaknesses on the road, conceding an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • H. Ekitike is unavailable for Liverpool's attack due to an Achilles tendon rupture
Overview

Newcastle United hosts Liverpool at St. James' Park

Premier League clash on August 23, 2026, 4:30 PM

Both teams start the new season level on points

The visitors enter the match as clear favorites

Form

Newcastle displays mixed form with a form string of LWDWL

The home side recorded two wins and two losses recently

Liverpool travels with a form string of WLDLD

The visitors recorded a draw in their last match

Statistics

Newcastle averages 1.39 goals scored per game

Liverpool boasts a stronger attack with 1.66 goals per match

Newcastle shows defensive stability at home with 1.15 goals conceded on average

Liverpool struggles defensively on the road with 1.94 goals conceded per away game

Head-to-Head

Liverpool dominates the historical record with three wins in four matches

Newcastle has failed to win any of these direct encounters

The last meeting ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Liverpool

Liverpool scored a total of twelve goals across these fixtures

Key Players

Cody Gakpo has been outstanding with five goals in his last five matches

Alexander Isak contributed one goal and three assists recently

Yoane Wissa is Newcastle's key threat with three goals in his last four games

Goalkeepers

Lukas Hornicek is starting in goal for Newcastle

Alisson guards the net for Liverpool with a season rating of 6.81

Liverpool kept ten clean sheets this season compared to Newcastle's eight

Influences

The home advantage at St. James' Park supports Newcastle's defense with 1.15 conceded goals on average

Venue statistics indicate a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.2 goals per match

The game will be played on natural grass

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