Premier League
Leeds United - Burnley
05/01/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
2.9
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Leeds United
Burnley
The Lab
- 1Leeds United with Wilfried Gnonto: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Burnley with Loum Tchaouna: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Leeds United: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 4Leeds United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Burnley: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
66%
Draw
22%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
34%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a 66% home win probability for Leeds United with expected 2.11 goals
- Current Form: Leeds United shows a positive form trend with 1.8 goals per game recently, while Burnley's goal output has dropped to 0.5 goals
- Matchup Advantage: Leeds' solid home offense (avg. 1.32 goals) meets Burnley's weak away defense (avg. 2.21 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Head-to-Head: Burnley has an unbeaten record against Leeds United in their last 3 direct encounters (2 wins, 1 draw)
- Low-Scoring Venue: The last 5 games at Elland Road showed a low average of 1.6 goals per game
Overview
Leeds United (15th place, 40 points) hosts Burnley (19th place, 20 points) at Elland Road
Premier League match on May 1, 2026, 8:00 PM
Leeds aims to solidify its mid-table position
Burnley, as a relegation-threatened team, fights for survival
Form
Leeds United shows mixed form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from the last 5 games (DWWDL)
The last match ended in a loss
Burnley is in a crisis with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in the last 5 matches (DLLLL)
They have suffered 4 consecutive losses recently
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Leeds United scores an average of 1.29 goals per season and concedes 1.5 goals
At home, they average 1.32 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded
Burnley averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 goals conceded per season
Away, these values are 1.0 goals scored and 2.21 goals conceded
Leeds has achieved 7 clean sheets this season, Burnley 4
At Elland Road, an average of 1.6 goals were scored in the last 5 games
Both teams did not score in any of these games, while 2 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 3 direct encounters, Leeds United has not secured a win
Burnley won 2 of these matches, 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference is 3:0 in favor of Burnley
The last meeting was a 2-0 victory for Burnley on October 18, 2025
Key Players
For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (11 goals, 1 assist), Noah Okafor (7 goals, 1 assist), and Anton Stach (4 goals, 3 assists) are significant
Noah Okafor shows rising form with 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Not nominated: Brenden Aaronson (4G/5A)
For Burnley, Zian Flemming (9 goals, 1 assist), Jaidon Anthony (7 goals, 1 assist), and Quilindschy Hartman (0 goals, 5 assists) are noteworthy
Goalkeepers
For Leeds United, Karl Darlow is available with 18 season appearances
He kept 5 clean sheets in home games and shows rising form
For Burnley, Martin Dúbravka is in goal for 34 season appearances
Burnley kept no clean sheets in away games
Influences
Leeds United's home strength is evident with an average of 1.32 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per home game
Burnley, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.21 goals per away game
The last 5 games at Elland Road averaged 1.6 goals per game
Both teams did not score in any of these games