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Premier League

Fulham - Chelsea

08/24/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Fulham
1.3
Total xG
3.1
Chelsea
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FULCHE

Fulham

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-1.21
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.84
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Harry Wilson not in squad (10 goals, 7 assists)
Samuel Chukwueze not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Emile Smith Rowe on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Saơa Lukić not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Muniz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
66% of goal output missing (only 38% available)

Chelsea

Attack strength (1.9x league average)
+1.59
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 0.6 league avg)
+0.86
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.26
Enzo FernĂĄndez on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists)
Marc Cucurella not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Moisés Caicedo not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fulham with Saơa Lukić: 0.3 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Chelsea with Andrey Santos: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.2 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

26%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Massive drop in quality for Fulham: Only 38% of the usual attacking threat is available as Harry Wilson, Samuel Chukwueze, Emile Smith Rowe, SaĆĄa Lukić, and Rodrigo Muniz are missing
  • Mathematical favorability for the visitors: The model predicts a 47% win probability for Chelsea with expected goals at 1.77
  • Limited offensive impact: Fulham averaged only 4.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Chelsea averaged just 3.2
Risk Factors
  • Struggling attack for both teams: Fulham currently score fewer goals (0.8) than their season average (1.3), and Chelsea also struggle with 1.0 goals compared to their average of 1.9
  • Key players missing for Chelsea: Enzo FernĂĄndez, Marc Cucurella, and MoisĂ©s Caicedo are not in the squad
Overview

Fulham host Chelsea at Craven Cottage

Premier League match on August 24, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams start the new season with zero points

The visitors enter this London derby as slight favorites

Form

Fulham's recent form shows mixed results

The hosts recorded a form of WLLDW in their last matches

Chelsea travel with a recent form of LDLWL

Both teams exhibited a negative form trend in their most recent games

Statistics

Fulham scored an average of 1.24 goals per game last season while conceding 1.34

At home, Fulham were defensively more stable, conceding only 0.83 goals per game

Chelsea scored an average of 1.53 goals per match last season and conceded 1.37

Both teams scored in 20 out of 38 games played by the home team

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 2 wins each in 4 head-to-head matches

The last encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Fulham

A total of 5 goals for Fulham and 6 goals for Chelsea were scored in these 4 matches

None of the recent head-to-head matches ended in a draw

Key Players

Alex Iwobi scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists last season

Antonee Robinson brings defensive stability with an average rating of 6.87

Cole Palmer was a key player for Chelsea with 10 goals and 1 assist last season

JoĂŁo Pedro stood out with 15 goals and 5 assists

Not in the lineup for Chelsea: Enzo Fernåndez, Marc Cucurella, Moisés Caicedo

Goalkeepers

Bernd Leno kept 9 clean sheets last season, 6 of which came at home

Robert SĂĄnchez also kept 9 clean sheets last season

Both goalkeepers showed a stable form trend recently

Influences

Craven Cottage features a natural grass pitch

An average of 1.8 goals per game were scored in recent matches at Craven Cottage

Both teams scored in only one of the last 5 matches at this venue

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