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Premier League

Manchester City - AFC Bournemouth

08/23/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Manchester City
1.9
Total xG
4.3
AFC Bournemouth
2.3
Most Likely Scores

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%

2:3

6%
What influences the xG?
MCAB

Manchester City

Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-1.02
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.11
JƩrƩmy Doku not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Bernardo SilvaĀ Ā  not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Matheus Nunes on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)

AFC Bournemouth

Attack strength (5.13x league average)
+2.67
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.06
Eli Kroupi not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists)
Marcos Senesi not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Tyler Adams on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    AFC Bournemouth: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Manchester City: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

21%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

93%

Under 1.5

7%

Over 2.5

80%

Under 2.5

20%

Over 3.5

61%

Under 3.5

39%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

78%

No

22%

Key Factors
  • Model Prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates 1.95 expected home goals and 2.31 expected away goals with a 46% chance of an away win
  • Squad Weakness: AFC Bournemouth is playing without Eli Kroupi, Marcos Senesi, and Tyler Adams, representing only 73% of their usual goal threat
  • Tactical Averages: Manchester City recently averaged 5.2 shots on target with 59% possession, while Bournemouth averaged 4.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • City's attack has stalled, averaging 1.8 goals in recent games compared to their 2.17 season average
  • Defensive struggles: Bournemouth conceded an average of 1.79 goals per away game
  • Bournemouth's goal production also slowed down recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their 1.79 season average
Overview

Manchester City hosts AFC Bournemouth at the Etihad Stadium

Premier League clash on August 23, 2026, 2:00 PM

Season opener with both teams eager for their first points

Form

Manchester City current form is WWWDL

City registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent games

AFC Bournemouth enters with a stable DWWDD form

The visitors remain unbeaten in their last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Manchester City averages 2.03 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded per game

AFC Bournemouth averages 1.53 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per game

City at home: Avg. 2.05 goals scored and 0.64 goals conceded

Bournemouth away: Avg. 1.53 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches recorded

Manchester City has 3 wins, AFC Bournemouth has 1 win and 1 draw

Goal difference stands at 10:6 in favor of Manchester City

The last encounter on May 19, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Erling Haaland with 27 goals and 8 assists this season

Phil Foden contributed 7 goals and 5 assists

Antoine Semenyo registered 7 goals and 1 assist

Marcus Tavernier has 7 goals and 4 assists

Evanilson recorded 6 goals and 2 assists

Adrien Truffert added 1 goal and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Gianluigi Donnarumma has 34 appearances and kept 9 clean sheets in home games

Djordje Petrovic made 38 appearances and secured 5 clean sheets in away games

Influences

Match played on natural grass at the Etihad Stadium

The venue sees a high average of 3.2 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals occurred in all 5 home games analyzed

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