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Premier League

Leeds United - Brentford

08/30/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Leeds United
1.9
Total xG
3.3
Brentford
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LUBRE

Leeds United

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Ao Tanaka on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Brentford

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.22
Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.04
Dango Ouattara not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Mathias Jensen not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Yegor Yarmolyuk not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Leeds United: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

25%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Tactical setup: Leeds averaged 3.6 shots on target with 45.6% possession in recent matches
  • Strong away attack: Brentford scores consistently with around 1.7 goals per game and recently averaged 4.2 shots on target
  • Home defense: Leeds conceded an average of only 0.95 goals per game at home last season
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability on the road: Brentford conceded an average of 2.07 goals per away game last season
  • Struggling attack: Leeds United's goal production is currently at only 1.2 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.5
Overview

Leeds United host Brentford at Elland Road

Premier League match on August 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

Leeds occupy 10th place with 3 points

Brentford sit in 6th place with 3 points

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 51%

Form

Leeds United show the form WDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently secured a 1-0 away win against Nottingham Forest

Brentford have a form of WLDDW

The visitors recently defeated Tottenham Hotspur 3-0 at home

Statistics

Leeds United averaged 1.29 goals scored per game last season

Their home record stands at an average of 1.32 goals scored and 0.95 conceded

Brentford averaged 1.45 goals scored per game last season

In away matches, the visitors conceded an average of 2.07 goals

The model expects an active match with 1.94 expected home goals and 1.33 expected away goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the database

Both matches ended in a draw

The last meeting on March 21, 2026, ended 0-0

Key Players

Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored 14 goals this season

Anton Stach impresses with a season rating of 7.24 and 5 goals

James Justin played 29 matches and scored 2 goals

Igor Thiago scored 22 goals in 38 appearances

Kevin Schade has registered 8 goals and 3 assists

Keane Lewis-Potter has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Elland Road

The venue statistics show an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 1 out of 5 matches at this venue

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 home matches

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