Match report →
Leeds United – Brentford1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Leeds United
1.94
Total xG
3.28
Brentford
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Leeds United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Ao Tanaka on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dango Ouattara not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Mathias Jensen not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Yegor Yarmolyuk not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical setup: Leeds averaged 3.6 shots on target with 45.6% possession in recent matches
- Strong away attack: Brentford scores consistently with around 1.7 goals per game and recently averaged 4.2 shots on target
- Home defense: Leeds conceded an average of only 0.95 goals per game at home last season
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability on the road: Brentford conceded an average of 2.07 goals per away game last season
- Struggling attack: Leeds United's goal production is currently at only 1.2 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.5
All probabilities
Result
Leeds United50%
Draw25%
Brentford25%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Double chance
Leeds United or draw75%
Brentford or draw50%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Leeds United: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Leeds United 3-4-2-1 · Brentford 4-2-3-1
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 6 J. Rodon
- 15 J. Bijol
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 18 A. Stach
- 24 J. Justin
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 19 N. Okafor
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 22 N. Collins
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 18 M. Sangare
- 27 V. Janelt
- 19 J. Anthony
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 7 K. Schade
- 9 Thiago
Substitutes
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 10 H. Wilson
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 21 A. Cairns
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 7 D. James
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 2 A. Hickey
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 14 F. Carvalho
- 3 R. Henry
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 6 Y. Yarmoliuk
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
- 44 J. Schuster
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