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Premier League

Crystal Palace - Manchester City

08/28/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Crystal Palace
0.9
Total xG
3.5
Manchester City
2.5
Most Likely Scores

0:2

10%

1:2

9%

1:1

8%

0:3

8%

1:3

8%
What influences the xG?
CPMC

Crystal Palace

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-1.26
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.83
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.18
Jean-Philippe Mateta not in squad (12 goals, 0 assists)
IsmaĆÆla Sarr not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Daniel MuƱoz on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Maxence Lacroix not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 56% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Manchester City

Attack strength (2.27x league average)
+2.10
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.15
Bernardo SilvaĀ Ā  not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Matheus Nunes not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Manchester City: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')

  • 3
    Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 4
    Crystal Palace: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

11%

Draw

18%

Away Win

70%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

30%

Away or Draw

89%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Manchester City with a 70% probability
  • Manchester City dominated possession recently, averaging 60% possession and 4.4 shots on target
  • Crystal Palace's goal production is currently stalling, averaging 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
Risk Factors
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta, IsmaĆÆla Sarr, Daniel MuƱoz, Maxence Lacroix missing, only 56% of attacking threat available
  • Manchester City's goal production also stalled recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.2
  • Manchester City will be without attacker J. Doku due to a calf injury
Overview

Crystal Palace host Manchester City at Selhurst Park

Premier League fixture on August 28, 2026, 8:00 PM

Hosts Crystal Palace sit in 16th place with 0 points

Manchester City occupy 8th place with 3 points

The visitors travel to London as clear favorites

Form

Crystal Palace's form is LDLWL

Their last match ended in a 0-2 defeat against Everton

Manchester City's form is WWDLW

The Citizens won their last game 2-1 against AFC Bournemouth

The away side enters with a more stable run of form

Statistics

Crystal Palace average 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per match

At home, they score 1.06 and concede 1.28 on average

Manchester City average 2.03 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game

On the road, the Citizens concede 1.31 while scoring 2.00 on average

Recent games at Selhurst Park averaged 2.6 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City secured 3 wins

Crystal Palace won once, with one match ending in a draw

The most recent encounter ended in a clear 3-0 victory for City

The aggregate goal difference stands at 5-13 in favor of Manchester City

Key Players

Midfielder Adam Wharton stands out with a 6.97 average season rating

Daichi Kamada showed strong form with 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Erling Haaland is the top threat with 27 goals in 35 appearances for Manchester City

Phil Foden contributed 7 goals and 5 assists this season

Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma provides stability for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Dean Henderson started 37 matches in goal for Crystal Palace this season

Gianluigi Donnarumma made 34 appearances in goal for Manchester City

The away side kept 16 clean sheets, while Palace recorded 12 this season

Influences

The match takes place on grass at Selhurst Park

Crystal Palace had 6 days of rest prior to this fixture

Manchester City had 5 days since their last match

Selhurst Park saw an average of 2.6 goals in recent home fixtures

Weather data is not available in the dataset

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