Match report ā
Crystal Palace ā Manchester City1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Crystal Palace
0.94
Total xG
3.45
Manchester City
2.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Crystal Palace | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.27x league average) | +2.10 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | ā1.26 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | ā0.83 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | ā0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | ā0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | ā0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.8 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | ā0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average) | ā0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta not in squad (12 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| IsmaĆÆla Sarr not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Daniel MuƱoz on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Maxence Lacroix not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 56% available) | ||
| Bernardo SilvaĀ Ā not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Matheus Nunes not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Manchester City with a 70% probability
- Manchester City dominated possession recently, averaging 60% possession and 4.4 shots on target
- Crystal Palace's goal production is currently stalling, averaging 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
Risks
- Jean-Philippe Mateta, IsmaĆÆla Sarr, Daniel MuƱoz, Maxence Lacroix missing, only 56% of attacking threat available
- Manchester City's goal production also stalled recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.2
- Manchester City will be without attacker J. Doku due to a calf injury
All probabilities
Result
Crystal Palace11%
Draw18%
Manchester City70%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw30%
Manchester City or draw89%
No draw82%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
1:1
8%
0:3
8%
1:3
8%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Manchester City: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')
- Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Crystal Palace: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 Ā· Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Crystal Palace
- 1 D. Henderson
- 6 J. Canvot
- 26 C. Richards
- 17 T. Tomiyasu
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 20 A. Wharton
- 18 D. Kamada
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 10 Y. JesĆŗs Pino Santos
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 6 M. Guehi
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 5 E. Anderson
- 47 P. Foden
- 10 M. Cherki
- 42 A. Semenyo
- 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
- 30 Ć. Mingueza GarcĆa
- 11 D. McNeil
- 29 E. Guessand
- 19 W. Hughes
- 44 W. BenĆtez
- 2 D. MuƱoz MejĆa
- 8 J. Lerma SolĆs
- 5 A. Disasi
- 12 Z. Gozo
- 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 28 G. Rulli
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 21 R. AĆÆt Nouri
- 8 M. KovaÄiÄ
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 82 R. Lewis
- 56 R. McAidoo
- 61 K. Braithwaite
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