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AFC Bournemouth – Everton1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
AFC Bournemouth
1.71
Total xG
2.76
Everton
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AFC Bournemouth | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Eli Kroupi not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marcos Senesi not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Tyler Adams on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Beto on the bench (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Michael Keane on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jake O'Brien on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tim Iroegbunam on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: AFC Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Everton
- Home strength vs away weakness: Bournemouth concede only 1.05 goals at home while Everton average 1.35 goals conceded away
- Prediction advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 52%
Risks
- Form divergence: Bournemouth lost their last match while Everton secured a victory
- Limited data on weather conditions
- Goal drought: Bournemouth's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to the season average of 1.77
All probabilities
Result
AFC Bournemouth51%
Draw27%
Everton22%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
AFC Bournemouth or draw78%
Everton or draw49%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: 11 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 · Everton 4-2-3-1
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 4 L. Cook
- 8 A. Scott
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 34 M. Röhl
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 10 I. Ndiaye
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19 T. George
- 11 T. Barry
Substitutes
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 18 B. Diakité
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 10 R. Christie
- 12 T. Adams
- 7 D. Brooks
- 29 D. Jebbison
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 5 M. Keane
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 22 B. Johnson
- 30 H. Hackney
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