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Premier League

AFC Bournemouth - Everton

08/29/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
AFC Bournemouth
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Everton
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ABEVE

AFC Bournemouth

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Eli Kroupi not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists)
Marcos Senesi not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Tyler Adams on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Everton

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.08
Beto on the bench (9 goals, 1 assists)
Michael Keane on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jake O'Brien on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Tim Iroegbunam on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Everton: 11 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: AFC Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Everton
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Bournemouth concede only 1.05 goals at home while Everton average 1.35 goals conceded away
  • Prediction advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 52%
Risk Factors
  • Form divergence: Bournemouth lost their last match while Everton secured a victory
  • Limited data on weather conditions
  • Goal drought: Bournemouth's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to the season average of 1.77
Overview

AFC Bournemouth host Everton at the Vitality Stadium

Premier League match on August 29, 2026, 3:00 PM

The home side sits in 14th place with 0 points

Everton travel as 6th in the table with 3 points

Form

AFC Bournemouth form: WWDDL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Last match ended in a 1-2 defeat against Manchester City

Everton form: DDLLW

Last match resulted in a 2-0 victory against Crystal Palace

Statistics

AFC Bournemouth average 1.53 goals scored per match this season

Home record stands at 1.53 goals scored and 1.05 conceded on average

Everton average 1.24 goals scored per game

Away record shows 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded on average

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in the database

AFC Bournemouth record 4 wins, Everton 1 win

No draws in direct encounters

Goal difference of 8:4 in favor of the home team

Last meeting ended 2-1 for AFC Bournemouth

Key Players

Marcus Tavernier with 7 goals, 4 assists and a rating of 6.99

Evanilson records 6 goals and 2 assists this season

Adrien Truffert scores 1 goal and provides 6 assists

Not nominated: Eli Kroupi (13 goals, 0 assists), Marcos Senesi (0 goals, 5 assists), Tyler Adams (2 goals, 2 assists)

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall leads Everton with 8 goals and 4 assists

James Garner contributes 2 goals and 7 assists with a rating of 7.33

Thierno Barry scores 8 goals this season

Not nominated: Beto (9 goals, 1 assist), Michael Keane (3 goals, 1 assist), Jake O'Brien (1 goal, 1 assist), Tim Iroegbunam (0 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Djordje Petrovic in goal for AFC Bournemouth with 11 clean sheets for the team

Jordan Pickford in goal for Everton with 11 clean sheets for the team

Influences

Home game at the Vitality Stadium on grass

An average of 2.6 goals are scored per match here

Home advantage is reflected in only 1.05 goals conceded per home game for Bournemouth

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