Match report →
Aston Villa – Arsenal0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Aston Villa
1.40
Total xG
2.62
Arsenal
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aston Villa | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Ollie Watkins not in squad (16 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Morgan Rogers not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Youri Tielemans not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Leandro Trossard not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Aston Villa is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.7 goals)
- Aston Villa averaged 5.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 39% and a double chance (home or draw) of 69%
Risks
- Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans are missing, only 61% of the goal threat is available
- Arsenal's goal production is currently stalling at 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.1 goals
- W. Saliba is missing for Arsenal's defence due to injury
All probabilities
Result
Aston Villa39%
Draw29%
Arsenal31%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw69%
Arsenal or draw61%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Arsenal: 81% of all goals in the first half (13 of 16, last 12 games)
- Arsenal: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)
- Aston Villa: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)
- John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 2 M. Cash
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 8 B. Kamara
- 6 R. Barkley
- 7 J. McGinn
- 10 E. Buendía
- 53 G. Hemmings
- 11 N. Jackson
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 29 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 13 M. Ruggeri
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 5 T. Mings
- 40 M. Bizot
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 17 A. Garnacho
- 18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
- 74 L. Lynch
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
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