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Premier League

Aston Villa - Arsenal

08/31/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Aston Villa
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Arsenal
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AVARS

Aston Villa

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.72
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.15
Ollie Watkins not in squad (16 goals, 3 assists)
Morgan Rogers not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists)
Youri Tielemans not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.57
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.15
Leandro Trossard not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Arsenal: 81% of all goals in the first half (13 of 16, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Arsenal: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)

  • 4
    Aston Villa: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)

  • 6
    John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Aston Villa is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.7 goals)
  • Aston Villa averaged 5.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 39% and a double chance (home or draw) of 69%
Risk Factors
  • Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans are missing, only 61% of the goal threat is available
  • Arsenal's goal production is currently stalling at 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 2.1 goals
  • W. Saliba is missing for Arsenal's defence due to injury
Overview

Aston Villa (18th place, 0 points) host Arsenal (9th place, 3 points) at Villa Park

Premier League match on August 31, 2026, 8:00 PM

Villa seek their first points after an opening defeat

Arsenal travel with a win in their bag

Form

Aston Villa form: DWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Villa recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Arsenal form: WWWDW

Arsenal achieved 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses recently

The visitors travel undefeated

Statistics

Aston Villa scored an average of 1.47 goals and conceded 1.29 goals this season

Arsenal scored an average of 1.87 goals and conceded only 0.71 goals per game

Villa Park matches historically averaged 4.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the games at this venue

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Aston Villa won 1 game, Arsenal won 2 with 1 draw

The goal difference is 5 to 9 goals against Villa

The last match ended in a 4-1 win for Arsenal on December 30, 2025

Key Players

Emiliano Buendía stands out with 6 goals and a 6.84 rating

John McGinn contributed 5 goals and 4 assists so far

Ross Barkley has scored 3 goals this season

Bukayo Saka shines with 7 goals and a 7.22 rating

Declan Rice leads the midfield with a strong 7.33 rating

Martin Ødegaard has already provided 6 assists this campaign

Goalkeepers

Aston Villa kept 9 clean sheets this season

David Raya guards the visitors' goal, with the team recording 19 clean sheets in total

Influences

The grass pitch at Villa Park is in excellent condition

Home advantage is reflected in an average of 1.45 goals scored in front of their fans

Historically, matches at this stadium are high-scoring, averaging 4.8 goals

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