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Premier League

Chelsea - Nottingham Forest

05/04/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Chelsea
2.0
Total xG
2.8
Nottingham Forest
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CHENF

Chelsea

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.54
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap)
+0.07
Pedro Neto not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Estêvão not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)

Nottingham Forest

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Morgan Gibbs-White on the bench (13 goals, 3 assists)
Neco Williams on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Elliot Anderson on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Omari Hutchinson  on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Ibrahim Sangaré not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Chris Wood  on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
70% of goal output missing (only 37% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chelsea with Jorrel Hato: 0 goals/90 min. Without: 7.3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Nottingham Forest: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Chelsea: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Nottingham Forest with Elliot Anderson: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

24%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

38%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Chelsea with a probability of 62%
  • Nottingham Forest faces a significantly weakened offense; only 37% of usual goal threat is available, without key players like Morgan Gibbs-White and Neco Williams
  • Nottingham Forest, despite personnel issues, shows strong current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Chelsea shows a negative form trend in goal production; it is currently stagnating (1.6 goals) compared to the season average (2.0 goals)
  • Nottingham Forest had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • At Stamford Bridge, both teams have not scored in any of the last 5 games
Overview

Chelsea (9th place, 48 points) host Nottingham Forest (16th place, 39 points) at Stamford Bridge. The Premier League match takes place on May 4, 2026, 3:00 PM. Chelsea aims to improve its league position, while Nottingham Forest seeks to widen the gap to the relegation zone.

Form

Chelsea shows inconsistent form with a WLLLW record in their last five games (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Their last result was a win. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, is in very strong shape with DWWWW in their last five matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have won their last four games. While Chelsea recently saw their goal production stall (1.6 goals on average), Nottingham Forest is currently scoring more frequently (2.4 goals on average).

Statistics

Chelsea averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.53 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded. Nottingham Forest averages 1.21 goals scored and also 1.32 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game. Both teams have kept 9 clean sheets this season. At Stamford Bridge, the last 5 matches averaged 3.0 goals, with no both teams to score instances and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In the 5 head-to-head matches so far, Chelsea dominated with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Nottingham Forest, and 1 draw. Chelsea scored 8 goals and conceded 4. The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 3-0 victory for Chelsea. Chelsea has shown to be the more dominant team in recent direct duels.

Key Players

For Chelsea, forward João Pedro is an important player with 14 season goals and 5 assists, although his form has slightly declined recently. Midfielder Enzo Fernández shows a rising form trend with 8 goals and 3 assists. Cole Palmer has contributed 9 goals and 1 assist so far, but his form is slightly declining. For Nottingham Forest, striker Igor Jesus is in rising form with 5 goals and 4 assists. Taiwo Awoniyi (2 goals, 1 assist) is in stable form. Nicolás Domínguez (1 goal, 1 assist) also shows a stable form trend.

Goalkeepers

Chelsea's goalkeeper, Robert Sánchez, played in 32 season matches and contributed to 9 clean sheets. For Nottingham Forest, Matz Sels made 27 season appearances and also helped his team achieve 9 clean sheets.

Influences

Stamford Bridge has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Notably, both teams did not score in any of these 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches. Chelsea's average home goals scored is 1.53, while they concede 1.4 goals at home. Nottingham Forest averages 1.21 goals scored away and concedes 1.26 goals per away game.

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