Match report →
Coventry City – Hull City0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Coventry City
1.57
Total xG
2.38
Hull City
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coventry City | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.91 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.79 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +0.52 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Strong home rate: Coventry City score an average of 2.12 goals per game at home
- Controlled build-up: Coventry dominate possession with an average of 59% in recent matches
- Offensive trend: Coventry City currently score more frequently with 2.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.3
Risks
- Counter-attack threat: Hull City play highly counter-oriented away with an average of just 33% possession
- Limited data available regarding player form in the provided dataset
- Strained squad depth for Hull City with a total of 4 injured or unfit players
All probabilities
Result
Coventry City54%
Draw28%
Hull City18%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Coventry City or draw82%
Hull City or draw46%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
13%
2:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
Lineups
Coventry City 4-2-3-1 · Hull City 5-4-1
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 4 B. Thomas
- 24 A. Amenda
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 6 M. Grimes
- 18 L. Tchaouna
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 14 T. Awoniyi
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 32 N. Mendy
- 3 R. Giles
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 27 R. Slater
- 5 H. Morita
- 21 E. Stroud
- 9 O. McBurnie
Substitutes
- 25 D. Bentley
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 22 J. Latibeaudiere
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 9 E. Simms
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 15 L. Kitching
- 38 G. Hamer
- 50 M. Cho
- 7 L. Millar
- 18 C. Drameh
- 12 D. Phillips
- 23 M. Targett
- 29 L. Gourna Douath
- 17 P. McNair
- 22 L. Herrington
- 14 J. Hjertø-Dahl
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