🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Premier League

Manchester United - Ipswich Town

08/30/2026, 03:30 PM

5 : 2
Expected Goals
Manchester United
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Ipswich Town
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

2:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
MUIT

Manchester United

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.26
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Amad Diallo not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Ipswich Town

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.15
Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+0.85
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.13
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Ipswich Town: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis forecasts a home win probability of 51%
  • Both sides showed high attacking intent recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
  • Manchester United retain 91% of their lineup strength despite missing Amad Diallo
Risk Factors
  • Limited statistical player data available for Ipswich Town in the provided dataset
  • Manchester United suffered a 0-2 away defeat against Hull City in their most recent league game
  • Ipswich Town possess a highly stable form curve, remaining undefeated in their last five matches (WDDWW)
Overview

Manchester United host Ipswich Town at Old Trafford

Premier League match on August 30, 2026, 4:30 PM

The hosts are currently in 16th place with 0 points

Ipswich Town arrive in 9th place with 3 points

Manchester United seek their first win of the season after a slow start

Form

Manchester United form: WDWWL

Most recent match ended in a loss against Hull City

Summary shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent games

Ipswich Town form: WDDWW

Last outcome was a win against Sunderland

Summary shows 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Manchester United scored an average of 1.82 goals and conceded 1.32 goals per season game

At home, they averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded

Ipswich Town scored an average of 1.74 goals while conceding 1.02 per game

In away matches, the visitors conceded an average of 1.43 goals and scored 1.76

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in recent history

One win for Manchester United and one draw

Goal difference of 4:3 in favor of the hosts

The last meeting ended in a 3:2 win for Manchester United on February 26, 2025

Key Players

Bruno Fernandes recorded 9 goals and 21 assists this season with an average rating of 7.77

Bryan Mbeumo scored 11 goals and provided 3 assists with a rating of 7.00

Matheus Cunha contributes 10 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.15

Leif Davis is featured in the starting lineup for the visitors as a defender

Marcelino Núñez operates in the midfield of Ipswich Town

Dara O'Shea strengthens the defensive line of the away team

Goalkeepers

Senne Lammens guards the goal for Manchester United, recording 8 clean sheets

Kjell Scherpen starts in goal for the visitors, with Ipswich Town securing 17 clean sheets overall

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Old Trafford

The last five matches at this venue averaged 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in all of those five historic home fixtures

Manchester United scored an average of 1.86 goals per home game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.