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Manchester United – Ipswich Town5 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Manchester United
1.55
Total xG
2.45
Ipswich Town
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester United | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −1.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.85 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Amad Diallo not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis forecasts a home win probability of 51%
- Both sides showed high attacking intent recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
- Manchester United retain 91% of their lineup strength despite missing Amad Diallo
Risks
- Limited statistical player data available for Ipswich Town in the provided dataset
- Manchester United suffered a 0-2 away defeat against Hull City in their most recent league game
- Ipswich Town possess a highly stable form curve, remaining undefeated in their last five matches (WDDWW)
All probabilities
Result
Manchester United51%
Draw29%
Ipswich Town20%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Manchester United or draw80%
Ipswich Town or draw49%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
2:0
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
5:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)
- Ipswich Town: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 23 L. Shaw
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 19 B. Mbeumo
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 9 M. Rashford
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Ipswich Town
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 6 I. Diop
- 24 J. Greaves
- 3 L. Davis
- 23 S. Lukić
- 32 M. Nuñez
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 J. Enciso
- 38 D. Maeda
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Substitutes
- 12 K. Darlow
- 30 B. Šeško
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 15 L. Yoro
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 26 A. Heaven
- 13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 31 S. Lacey
- 25 E. Palacios
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 8 S. Egeli
- 4 C. Kipre
- 20 K. McAteer
- 47 J. Clarke
- 28 C. Walton
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