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Premier League

Liverpool - Nottingham Forest

08/29/2026, 11:30 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Liverpool
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Nottingham Forest
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
LIVNF

Liverpool

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 16, 11 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Ryan Gravenberch on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Rio Ngumoha on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Curtis Jones not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Nottingham Forest

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 5, 11 places gap)
-0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
Elliot Anderson not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Omari HutchinsonĀ  not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Chris WoodĀ  not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
NicolƔs Domƭnguez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nottingham Forest: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win for Liverpool with a probability of 61%
  • Liverpool dominated possession recently with an average of 57.4% and managed 5.6 shots on target per match
  • Cody Gakpo is in rising form with 4 goals scored in his last 5 appearances
Risk Factors
  • Nottingham Forest only have 88% of their usual starting lineup strength available due to missing players like Elliot Anderson, Omari Hutchinson, Chris Wood and NicolĆ”s DomĆ­nguez
  • Liverpool's recent defensive form shows 2.2 goals conceded per game compared to their season average of 1.40
  • Both teams are struggling to find wins, showing recent forms of LDLDD and LDLDL
Overview

Anfield hosts this Premier League clash on August 29, 2026, 12:30 PM

Liverpool (11th place, 1 point) welcome Nottingham Forest (15th place, 0 points)

Both sides are looking for their first win of the season after a slow start

Form

Liverpool's form across all competitions is LDLDD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Nottingham Forest show a form curve of LDLDL consisting of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Form guide: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Liverpool scored an average of 1.66 goals per match and conceded 1.39 last season

Nottingham Forest averaged 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game

At home, Liverpool scored 1.62 goals on average while Nottingham Forest scored 1.27 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head encounters, Nottingham Forest won 2 matches, Liverpool won 1, and 1 ended in a draw

The goal difference during these matches stands at 2:5 against Liverpool

The last meeting ended in a 1:0 victory for Liverpool

Key Players

Cody Gakpo scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

Dominik Szoboszlai stood out with 2 goals and 4 assists in his last 5 matches

Morgan Gibbs-White registered 15 goals and 4 assists over the course of the season

Goalkeepers

Alisson features in goal for Liverpool with an average season rating of 6.81

Matz Sels played in 31 season matches for Nottingham Forest

Both keepers show reliable average ratings around the 6.80 mark

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Anfield

Venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 games played at this venue

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