Match report â
Liverpool â Nottingham Forest2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Liverpool
1.91
Total xG
2.76
Nottingham Forest
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Liverpool | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 5, 11 places gap) | â0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | â0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | â0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 16, 11 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | â0.08 | |
| Ryan Gravenberch on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Rio Ngumoha on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Curtis Jones not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Elliot Anderson not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Omari Hutchinson not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Chris Wood not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| NicolĂĄs DomĂnguez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a home win for Liverpool with a probability of 61%
- Liverpool dominated possession recently with an average of 57.4% and managed 5.6 shots on target per match
- Cody Gakpo is in rising form with 4 goals scored in his last 5 appearances
Risks
- Nottingham Forest only have 88% of their usual starting lineup strength available due to missing players like Elliot Anderson, Omari Hutchinson, Chris Wood and NicolĂĄs DomĂnguez
- Liverpool's recent defensive form shows 2.2 goals conceded per game compared to their season average of 1.40
- Both teams are struggling to find wins, showing recent forms of LDLDD and LDLDL
All probabilities
Result
Liverpool61%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest15%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw85%
Nottingham Forest or draw39%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nottingham Forest: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 9 A. Isak
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 31 N. MilenkoviÄ
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 21 X. Schlager
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 3 N. Williams
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 11 I. da Cruz
Substitutes
- 33 R. AraĂșjo da Silva
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 3 W. Endo
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 53 J. McConnell
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 25 L. Netz
- 44 Z. Abbott
- 12 J. Furtado
- 8 N. DomĂnguez
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 22 R. Yates
- 9 C. Wood
- 19 L. Delap
- 2 O. Diomande
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