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Premier League

Sunderland - Fulham

08/30/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Sunderland
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Fulham
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SUNFUL

Sunderland

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.62
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Omar Alderete on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Fulham

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.10
Emile Smith Rowe on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
SaÅ”a Lukić not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Muniz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fulham: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Sunderland: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

32%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Only 53% of the goal threat is available, without Emile Smith Rowe, SaÅ”a Lukić, Rodrigo Muniz
  • Sunderland is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.2)
  • Fulham averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches with 56.6% possession
Risk Factors
  • Fulham conceded an average of 2.21 goals per away game last season
  • Sunderland averaged only 1.11 goals per match in the previous campaign
Overview

Sunderland (15th place, 0 points) host Fulham (14th place, 0 points) at the Stadium of Light

Premier League match on August 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

The mathematical prediction estimates a 39% probability for a home win

Form

Sunderland shows the form DDWWL

The hosts lost their last match 1-2 against Ipswich Town

Fulham shows the form LLDWL

The visitors lost 2-3 to Chelsea in their previous match

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Sunderland scored an average of 1.11 goals per game last season

Fulham conceded an average of 2.21 goals per away match

The model expects 1.25 goals for Sunderland and 1.07 goals for Fulham

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the database

Fulham won both direct encounters

The last match on February 22, 2026, ended in a 1-3 victory for Fulham

Key Players

Enzo Le FĆ©e scored 5 goals and provided 6 assists this season

Brian Brobbey scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Alex Iwobi leads the visitors with an average rating of 7.04

Goalkeepers

Robin Roefs guards the home goal with an average rating of 6.94

Bernd Leno plays for Fulham with a rating of 6.80

Sunderland achieved 11 clean sheets last season

Influences

Sunderland is defensively stable at the Stadium of Light with only 0.87 goals conceded per home game

The match will be played on a grass surface

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