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Premier League08/30/2026, 01:00 PM

Sunderland – Fulham1 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Sunderland
1.25
Total xG
2.32
Fulham
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorSunderlandFulham
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)−0.62
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.43+0.43
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)−0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)+0.07
Omar Alderete on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Emile Smith Rowe on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Saơa Lukić not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Muniz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

Key factors

  • Only 53% of the goal threat is available, without Emile Smith Rowe, SaĆĄa Lukić, Rodrigo Muniz
  • Sunderland is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.2)
  • Fulham averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches with 56.6% possession

Risks

  • Fulham conceded an average of 2.21 goals per away game last season
  • Sunderland averaged only 1.11 goals per match in the previous campaign

All probabilities

Result
Sunderland39%
Draw32%
Fulham30%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Sunderland or draw70%
Fulham or draw61%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Fulham: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
  2. Sunderland: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

Lineups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 · Fulham 4-2-3-1

Sunderland
  • 22 R. Roefs
  • 12 T. Meunier
  • 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
  • 5 D. Ballard
  • 17 R. Mandava
  • 34 G. Xhaka
  • 27 N. Sadiki
  • 32 T. Hume
  • 28 E. Le FĂ©e
  • 10 N. Angulo RamĂ­rez
  • 9 B. Brobbey
Fulham
  • 1 B. Leno
  • 21 T. Castagne
  • 5 J. Andersen
  • 3 C. Bassey
  • 33 A. Robinson
  • 16 S. Berge
  • 17 A. Iwobi
  • 14 O. Bobb
  • 24 J. King
  • 8 C. Palacios PĂ©rez
  • 7 G. GarcĂ­a Torres
Substitutes
  • 19 M. Diarra
  • 7 C. Talbi
  • 18 W. Isidor
  • 13 L. O'Nien
  • 15 O. Alderete FernĂĄndez
  • 14 R. Mundle
  • 11 C. Rigg
  • 31 M. Ellborg
  • 29 J. Ahoka Jules
  • 23 B. Lecomte
  • 11 Kevin
  • 30 K. Sessegnon
  • 4 J. Cuenca Barreno
  • 32 E. Smith Rowe
  • 6 H. Reed
  • 9 Rodrigo Muniz
  • 19 S. Charles
  • 35 M. Zepa

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