šŸ“󠁧󠁢󠁄󠁮󠁧ó æ

Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United

08/29/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Newcastle United
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
THNU

Tottenham Hotspur

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.77
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Richarlison not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists)
JoĆ£o Palhinha not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Conor Gallagher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Randal Kolo Muani not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

Newcastle United

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Bruno GuimarĆ£es not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Nick Woltemade on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
William Osula not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists)
Jacob Murphy on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Dan Burn not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Sandro Tonali not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 53% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newcastle United: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    Newcastle United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Tottenham Hotspur: 3.2 cards per game (35 yellows, 0 reds in 11 games)

  • 4
    Harvey Barnes: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Newcastle United: 8 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Critical quality loss for Tottenham: Only 47% of the seasonal goal threat is active with key scorers like Richarlison, JoĆ£o Palhinha, and Conor Gallagher missing from the lineup
  • Historical dominance of the Magpies: Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last 4 head-to-head encounters, winning 3 of them
  • Tottenham's offensive form crisis: Recently, their goal production stalled at an average of just 1.0 goals per match compared to their 1.48 season average
Risk Factors
  • Significant blow to Newcastle's attack: Only 54% of the regular threat is available with key players like Bruno GuimarĆ£es and Nick Woltemade missing
  • Severe away weakness for the visitors: Newcastle United concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
  • Low threat despite high possession: Tottenham recently averaged only a disappointing 3.4 shots on target per match despite holding 55.2% possession
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (17th place, 0 points) host Newcastle United (10th place, 1 point) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Premier League match on August 29, 2026, 5:30 PM

Both sides are looking for stability early in the season

Form

Tottenham's home form: WDLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Newcastle's away form: WDWLD

Tottenham lost their last match, while Newcastle recorded a draw

Statistics

Tottenham score an average of 1.26 goals and concede 1.50 per game

Newcastle average 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded

Away from home, Newcastle concede an average of 2.08 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Newcastle won 3 of the last 4 direct meetings, with 1 draw

The last match ended in a 1-2 victory for Newcastle on February 10, 2026

The goals ratio in head-to-head stands at 5:8 in favor of Newcastle

Key Players

Pedro Porro stands out for Spurs with a 7.01 average rating and 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Yoane Wissa is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances for the visitors

Anthony Elanga has also been sharp, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

AntonĆ­n KinskĆ½ features in goal for Tottenham with a 6.59 average rating

Lukas Hornicek guards the net for Newcastle United

Tottenham have kept 9 clean sheets this season compared to Newcastle's 8

Influences

Average goals at this stadium stand at 3.0 per match

The model predicts a home win probability of 44%

An expected goal average of 1.47 is calculated for the home side

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.