Match report ā
Tottenham Hotspur ā Newcastle United0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Tottenham Hotspur
1.47
Total xG
2.56
Newcastle United
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | ā0.77 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ā0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | ā0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | ā0.01 | |
| Richarlison not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| JoĆ£o Palhinha not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Conor Gallagher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Randal Kolo Muani not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Bruno GuimarĆ£es not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Nick Woltemade on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| William Osula not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jacob Murphy on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dan Burn not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sandro Tonali not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical quality loss for Tottenham: Only 47% of the seasonal goal threat is active with key scorers like Richarlison, JoĆ£o Palhinha, and Conor Gallagher missing from the lineup
- Historical dominance of the Magpies: Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last 4 head-to-head encounters, winning 3 of them
- Tottenham's offensive form crisis: Recently, their goal production stalled at an average of just 1.0 goals per match compared to their 1.48 season average
Risks
- Significant blow to Newcastle's attack: Only 54% of the regular threat is available with key players like Bruno GuimarĆ£es and Nick Woltemade missing
- Severe away weakness for the visitors: Newcastle United concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
- Low threat despite high possession: Tottenham recently averaged only a disappointing 3.4 shots on target per match despite holding 55.2% possession
All probabilities
Result
Tottenham Hotspur44%
Draw29%
Newcastle United26%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Tottenham Hotspur or draw74%
Newcastle United or draw56%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newcastle United: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Newcastle United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Tottenham Hotspur: 3.2 cards per game (35 yellows, 0 reds in 11 games)
- Harvey Barnes: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Newcastle United: 8 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 Ā· Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. KinskĆ½
- 14 A. Gray
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 3 A. Robertson
- 30 R. Bentancur ColmƔn
- 16 S. Tonali
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 11 M. Tel
- 22 O. Marmoush
Newcastle United
- 21 L. HornĆÄek
- 37 A. DediÄ
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 3 L. Hall
- 6 N. GonzƔlez Iglesias
- 67 L. Miley
- 19 A. Elanga
- 28 J. Willock
- 11 H. Barnes
- 9 Y. Wissa
Substitutes
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 39 M. DĆŗbravka
- 33 B. Davies
- 13 I. Udogie
- 20 M. Kudus
- 15 L. Bergvall
- 19 D. Solanke
- 47 M. Moore
- 17 B. TourƩ
- 8 A. Bamba
- 41 J. Ramsey
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 5 F. SchƤr
- 23 J. Murphy
- 14 S. Steur
- 51 L. Shahar
- 24 E. Jaouen
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