Match report →
Chelsea – Brighton & Hove Albion4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Chelsea
1.27
Total xG
2.95
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Enzo Fernández not in squad (10 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marc Cucurella not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Moisés Caicedo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Jack Hinshelwood not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Yasin Ayari not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 39% of goal output missing (only 64% available) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Brighton currently score more frequently (2.0 goals) compared to their season average (1.6)
- Tactical dominance: Brighton averaged 6.0 shots on target and 67.2% possession in recent matches
- Historical edge: Brighton won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Chelsea
Risks
- Fatigue: Brighton face a quick turnaround with only 3 days since their last match
- Squad impact: Jack Hinshelwood and Yasin Ayari are missing, leaving only 65% of Brighton's goal threat active
- Chelsea averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Chelsea27%
Draw27%
Brighton & Hove Albion46%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Chelsea or draw54%
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw73%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chelsea: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Chelsea 3-4-2-1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1
Chelsea
- 26 D. Martínez
- 3 W. Fofana
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 6 L. Colwill
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 27 M. Gusto
- 45 R. Lavia
- 21 J. Hato
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 9 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 27 M. Wieffer
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 13 P. Groß
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Substitutes
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 4 V. Barco
- 39 M. Penders
- 24 R. James
- 11 J. Bynoe-Gittens
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 23 J. Steele
- 6 J. Hadjam
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 4 P. Struijk
- 22 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 20 J. da Costa
- 49 N. Oriola
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