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Premier League

Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion

08/30/2026, 01:00 PM

4 : 3
Expected Goals
Chelsea
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CHEB&HA

Chelsea

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.15
Enzo Fernández not in squad (10 goals, 4 assists)
Marc Cucurella not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Moisés Caicedo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Brighton & Hove Albion

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.67
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.14
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Jack Hinshelwood not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Yasin Ayari not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
39% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chelsea: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

27%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Brighton currently score more frequently (2.0 goals) compared to their season average (1.6)
  • Tactical dominance: Brighton averaged 6.0 shots on target and 67.2% possession in recent matches
  • Historical edge: Brighton won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Chelsea
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Brighton face a quick turnaround with only 3 days since their last match
  • Squad impact: Jack Hinshelwood and Yasin Ayari are missing, leaving only 65% of Brighton's goal threat active
  • Chelsea averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their recent matches
Overview

Chelsea host Brighton & Hove Albion at Stamford Bridge

Match on August 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

Chelsea sit in 8th place with 3 points

Brighton occupy 5th place with 3 points

A balanced encounter early in the season

Form

Chelsea's form is DLWLW with a win in their last match

Brighton's form is LLDWW with two consecutive wins

Both teams recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their recent matches

Statistics

Chelsea scored 1.53 goals and conceded 1.37 on average this season

Brighton scored 1.37 goals and conceded 1.21 on average per game

Chelsea have a home goal difference of 26:25

Brighton conceded an average of 1.62 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

Brighton dominant with 4 wins, while Chelsea have 1 win

The last match ended in a 3-0 victory for Brighton on April 21, 2026

Key Players

Cole Palmer shows a rising form trend with 10 goals and 1 assist this season

João Pedro scored 15 goals and provided 5 assists this season

Pedro Neto contributed 5 goals and 6 assists so far

Not nominated: Enzo Fernández (10T/4A), Marc Cucurella (1T/4A), and Moisés Caicedo (3T/1A)

Goalkeepers

Emiliano Martínez is in goal for Chelsea

Bart Verbruggen guards the net for Brighton

Chelsea registered 9 clean sheets this season

Brighton kept 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

Stamford Bridge averages 3.6 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of matches at this venue

Chelsea have home advantage based on home goals and goals conceded

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