Match report →
Fulham – Crystal Palace2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Fulham
1.47
Total xG
2.81
Crystal Palace
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Emile Smith Rowe on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Muniz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Ismaïla Sarr not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Daniel Muñoz not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jørgen Strand Larsen on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 64% of goal output missing (only 52% available) |
Key factors
- Only 52% of Crystal Palace's usual attacking threat is available as Ismaïla Sarr, Daniel Muñoz, and Jørgen Strand Larsen are missing
- Fulham averaged 59% possession recently in their past matches
- The mathematical prediction lists Fulham with a slight advantage and a 39% home win probability
Risks
- Emile Smith Rowe and Rodrigo Muniz are missing for Fulham, leaving only 64% of their usual attacking threat available
- The attack is struggling for both teams with only 1.0 average goals scored in recent matches
- Crystal Palace dominated the head-to-head history recently with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings
All probabilities
Result
Fulham39%
Draw28%
Crystal Palace33%
Double chance
Fulham or draw67%
Crystal Palace or draw61%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fulham: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Crystal Palace: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Fulham 4-2-3-1 · Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 5 J. Andersen
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 19 S. Charles
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
- 7 G. García Torres
Crystal Palace
- 1 D. Henderson
- 26 C. Richards
- 5 A. Disasi
- 6 J. Canvot
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 23 Q. Timber
- 20 A. Wharton
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 18 D. Kamada
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 9 E. Nketiah
Substitutes
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 30 K. Sessegnon
- 32 E. Smith Rowe
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 16 S. Berge
- 15 H. Larsson
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 33 B. Chilwell
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
- 28 C. Doucoure
- 19 W. Hughes
- 44 W. Benítez
- 17 T. Tomiyasu
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
- 12 Z. Gozo
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