Match report →
Nottingham Forest – Tottenham Hotspur0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Nottingham Forest
1.36
Total xG
2.31
Tottenham Hotspur
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nottingham Forest | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Igor Jesus on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Elliot Anderson not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Richarlison not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| João Palhinha not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 50% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Nottingham Forest won all 4 head-to-head matches in the last two years with a goal record of 9:1
- Massive squad impact for Tottenham: Without Richarlison and João Palhinha, only 51% of the usual starting threat is available
- Model prediction advantage: The mathematical model calculates a 76% probability for a home win or draw (Home or Draw)
Risks
- Nottingham squad weakened: Without Igor Jesus and Elliot Anderson, only 64% of the usual goal danger is available
- Stagnant offensive performance: Nottingham Forest's recent goal average has stalled at 1.2 goals compared to the 1.45 season average
- Form slump for Tottenham Hotspur: The away side shows a negative form trend with only 0.6 goals scored on average recently
All probabilities
Result
Nottingham Forest45%
Draw31%
Tottenham Hotspur24%
Double chance
Nottingham Forest or draw76%
Tottenham Hotspur or draw55%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nottingham Forest: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 · Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 31 N. Milenković
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 21 X. Schlager
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 3 N. Williams
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 19 L. Delap
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 13 I. Udogie
- 30 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 16 S. Tonali
- 17 S. Moreira de Oliveira
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 11 M. Tel
- 22 O. Marmoush
Substitutes
- 25 L. Netz
- 12 J. Furtado
- 11 I. da Cruz
- 8 N. Domínguez
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 22 R. Yates
- 9 C. Wood
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 2 O. Diomande
- 5 M. Senesi
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 39 M. Dúbravka
- 3 A. Robertson
- 27 M. Mudryk
- 20 M. Kudus
- 14 A. Gray
- 15 L. Bergvall
- 19 D. Solanke
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