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Premier League

Nottingham Forest - Tottenham Hotspur

09/05/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Nottingham Forest
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Tottenham Hotspur
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
NFTH

Nottingham Forest

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Igor Jesus on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Elliot Anderson not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Tottenham Hotspur

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.47
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.30
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.26
Richarlison not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists)
João Palhinha not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 50% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nottingham Forest: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

31%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Nottingham Forest won all 4 head-to-head matches in the last two years with a goal record of 9:1
  • Massive squad impact for Tottenham: Without Richarlison and João Palhinha, only 51% of the usual starting threat is available
  • Model prediction advantage: The mathematical model calculates a 76% probability for a home win or draw (Home or Draw)
Risk Factors
  • Nottingham squad weakened: Without Igor Jesus and Elliot Anderson, only 64% of the usual goal danger is available
  • Stagnant offensive performance: Nottingham Forest's recent goal average has stalled at 1.2 goals compared to the 1.45 season average
  • Form slump for Tottenham Hotspur: The away side shows a negative form trend with only 0.6 goals scored on average recently
Overview

Nottingham Forest (15th place, 1 point) host Tottenham Hotspur (19th place, 0 points) at the City Ground

Premier League match on September 5, 2026, 4:00 PM

Both teams are searching for their first win of the season

Form

Nottingham Forest form is DLDLD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Liverpool

Tottenham Hotspur form is DLWLL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their last match was a 0-2 loss against Newcastle United

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nottingham Forest average 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded

Tottenham Hotspur average 1.26 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded

Tottenham concede an average of 1.24 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in the last two years

Nottingham Forest dominated with 4 wins and a goal difference of 9:1

The last matchup on March 22, 2026, ended in a 3-0 home win for Nottingham Forest

Key Players

Morgan Gibbs-White has 15 goals and 4 assists with a 7.04 rating

Dan Ndoye scored 3 goals in his last 5 games with a 6.65 rating

Pedro Porro has 1 goal and a 7.01 average rating

Goalkeepers

Matz Sels features in goal for Nottingham Forest with a 6.80 rating

Antonín Kinský starts for Tottenham with a 6.59 rating

Both teams have recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage at the City Ground

The stadium averages 1.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games at this venue

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