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Ipswich Town – Liverpool0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Ipswich Town
1.39
Total xG
2.67
Liverpool
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ipswich Town | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.60 | +0.60 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Gravenberch on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Rio Ngumoha on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Curtis Jones not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jeremie Frimpong on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Ipswich Town shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more (2.3) than their season average (1.8)
- Ipswich Town boasts a very strong home defense, conceding an average of only 0.68 goals per home game
- Liverpool dominated play in recent matches, averaging 59% possession in past games
Risks
- Liverpool concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
- Limited data availability regarding the home team's player form statistics
All probabilities
Result
Ipswich Town38%
Draw29%
Liverpool33%
Double chance
Ipswich Town or draw67%
Liverpool or draw62%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Liverpool: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
- Ipswich Town: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1 · Liverpool 4-2-3-1
Ipswich Town
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 6 I. Diop
- 24 J. Greaves
- 3 L. Davis
- 23 S. Lukić
- 25 E. Palacios
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 J. Enciso
- 38 D. Maeda
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 9 A. Isak
Substitutes
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 32 M. Nuñez
- 2 D. Furlong
- 4 C. Kipre
- 20 K. McAteer
- 47 J. Clarke
- 28 C. Walton
- 29 B. Barcola
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 3 W. Endo
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 21 K. Tsimikas
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