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Premier League

Ipswich Town - Liverpool

09/04/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Ipswich Town
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Liverpool
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ITLIV

Ipswich Town

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.21
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

Liverpool

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Ryan Gravenberch on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Rio Ngumoha on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Curtis Jones not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Jeremie Frimpong on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.60
+0.60
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Liverpool: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)

  • 2
    Ipswich Town: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

29%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Ipswich Town shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more (2.3) than their season average (1.8)
  • Ipswich Town boasts a very strong home defense, conceding an average of only 0.68 goals per home game
  • Liverpool dominated play in recent matches, averaging 59% possession in past games
Risk Factors
  • Liverpool concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability regarding the home team's player form statistics
Overview

Ipswich Town (12th place, 3 points) host Liverpool (13th place, 2 points) at the Portman Road Stadium

Premier League match on September 4, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams are positioned closely in the table

Form

Ipswich Town shows a form of DDWWL with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match ended in a 2-5 defeat against Manchester United

Liverpool has a form of DLDDD with 4 draws and 1 loss, still searching for a win

Their last result was a 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Ipswich Town averaged 1.74 goals scored and 1.02 goals conceded this season

At home, their defense is solid with only 0.68 goals conceded per game

Liverpool conceded an average of 1.94 goals per away game while scoring 1.71

The away side managed 10 clean sheets in 38 games

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches, both won by Liverpool

The goal difference stands at 1:6 in favor of Liverpool

The last direct encounter on January 25, 2025, ended in a 4-1 victory for Liverpool

Key Players

For Liverpool, Dominik Szoboszlai shines with a season rating of 7.37, while Cody Gakpo scored 4 goals in his last 5 games

Florian Wirtz contributed 3 assists in his last 5 appearances

Emersonn is in the home lineup and scored 1 goal in 2 home matches

Goalkeepers

Kjell Scherpen starts in goal for Ipswich Town, averaging a 6.78 rating at home

Alisson is in goal for the visitors with a season rating of 6.81

Ipswich kept 17 clean sheets this season compared to Liverpool's 10

Influences

Matches at the Portman Road Stadium averaged 3.0 goals per game recently

Both teams scored in 80% of these matches with over 2.5 goals occurring in 80% of games

Ipswich Town benefits from their strong home defense of 0.68 goals conceded per game

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