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Premier League

Arsenal - Chelsea

09/06/2026, 03:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Arsenal
1.8
Total xG
2.4
Chelsea
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

2:0

14%

1:1

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ARSCHE

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.89
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.08
16% of goal output missing (only 94% available)

Chelsea

Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.02
Enzo FernĂĄndez not in squad (10 goals, 4 assists)
Malo Gusto on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Marc Cucurella not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Moisés Caicedo not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arsenal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Arsenal: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Arsenal: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

25%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Chelsea enters weakened as key players Enzo FernĂĄndez, Malo Gusto, Marc Cucurella, and MoisĂ©s Caicedo are not nominated
  • Mathematical analysis projects a home win for Arsenal with a 64% probability
  • Arsenal averaged 3.8 shots on target per game with 55% ball possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Arsenal's goal scoring has slowed recently to 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.1
  • Chelsea averaged only 4.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Arsenal (3rd place, 6 points) hosts Chelsea (4th place, 6 points) at the Emirates Stadium

Premier League match on September 6, 2026, 4:30 PM

A clash of two unbeaten teams early in the season

Form

Arsenal shows a stable form of WWDWW with 4 wins and 1 draw

Chelsea recorded a form of LWLWW with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Arsenal scored an average of 1.87 goals per game and conceded 0.71 goals this season

Chelsea averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per match

At the Emirates Stadium, the home side recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in history

Arsenal has 2 wins, Chelsea has 1 win and 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Arsenal

Key Players

Bukayo Saka (7 goals, 6 assists), Declan Rice (4 goals, 5 assists), and Martin Ødegaard (1 goal, 6 assists) support the hosts

Cole Palmer (10 goals, 1 assist), JoĂŁo Pedro (15 goals, 5 assists), and Pedro Neto (5 goals, 6 assists) lead the visitors

Goalkeepers

David Raya has recorded 19 clean sheets this season

The dataset contains no clean sheet figures for Emiliano MartĂ­nez

Influences

At the Emirates Stadium, matches averaged 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In none of the last 5 home games did both teams score (0% BTTS)

The game will be played on natural grass

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