Match report →
Arsenal – Chelsea2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Arsenal
1.77
Total xG
2.40
Chelsea
0.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.89 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Enzo Fernández not in squad (10 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Malo Gusto on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marc Cucurella not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Moisés Caicedo not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Chelsea enters weakened as key players Enzo Fernández, Malo Gusto, Marc Cucurella, and Moisés Caicedo are not nominated
- Mathematical analysis projects a home win for Arsenal with a 64% probability
- Arsenal averaged 3.8 shots on target per game with 55% ball possession in recent matches
Risks
- Arsenal's goal scoring has slowed recently to 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.1
- Chelsea averaged only 4.0 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Arsenal64%
Draw25%
Chelsea11%
Double chance
Arsenal or draw89%
Chelsea or draw36%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
2:0
14%
1:1
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Arsenal: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- Arsenal: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
Lineups
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · Chelsea 3-4-2-1
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 41 D. Rice
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 29 K. Havertz
Chelsea
- 1 D. Martínez
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 3 W. Fofana
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 45 R. Lavia
- 24 R. James
- 21 J. Hato
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 9 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Substitutes
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 4 V. Barco
- 39 M. Penders
- 11 J. Bynoe-Gittens
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 27 M. Gusto
- 6 L. Colwill
- 23 G. Quenda
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
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