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Premier League

Sunderland - Manchester United

05/09/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Sunderland
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Manchester United
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SUNMU

Sunderland

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.09
Habib Diarra on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Manchester United

Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.01
Bryan Mbeumo on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)
Benjamin Sesko not in squad (11 goals, 1 assists)
Casemiro not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists)
Diogo Dalot on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester United: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Sunderland with Wilson Isidor: 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Manchester United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Manchester United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Sunderland: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

29%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 44% win probability for Manchester United
  • Manchester United's starting eleven is reduced to 71% of its usual strength according to analysis, with absences of Bryan Mbeumo, Benjamin Sesko, Casemiro, and Diogo Dalot, significantly impacting goal threat
  • Manchester United shows better form with 3 wins in their last 5 games and a significantly stronger offense (Avg. 1.80 goals/game) than Sunderland (Avg. 1.06 goals/game)
Risk Factors
  • Sunderland is without D. Ballard (Red Card Suspension), R. Mundle (Hamstring Injury), S. Moore (Broken Hand), and B. TraorĂ© (Knee Injury)
  • Manchester United has key players B. Ć eĆĄko (Doubtful) and M. de Ligt (Back Injury) whose availability is uncertain
  • The Stadium of Light has seen only 20% BTTS and 40% Over 2.5 goals in its last 5 matches, suggesting a tendency for lower-scoring games
Overview

Sunderland (12th place, 47 points) hosts Manchester United (3rd place, 64 points) at the Stadium of Light

Premier League match on May 9, 2026, 3:00 PM

Manchester United is aiming for a top position, while Sunderland is in the mid-table

Form

Sunderland's current form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is WWLLD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last match ended in a draw

Manchester United's form is DLWWW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

They ended their last match with a win and are on a 3-game winning streak

Statistics

Sunderland scored an average of 1.06 goals per game this season and conceded 1.31 goals

At home, they scored 1.05 goals and conceded 0.86 goals per home game

Manchester United scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 1.37 goals per game

Away from home, they scored 1.80 goals and conceded 1.73 goals per away game

Sunderland had 16 both teams to score (BTTS) games and 15 over 2.5 goals games

Manchester United had 26 BTTS games and 22 over 2.5 goals games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Sunderland and Manchester United so far

Manchester United won the last encounter on October 4, 2025, with a score of 0:2

Manchester United dominated this last fixture

Key Players

For Sunderland, Granit Xhaka in midfield is a key player with 1 goal and 6 assists at an average rating of 7.13

Enzo Le FĂ©e contributes from midfield with 4 goals and 5 assists at a rating of 6.92

Nordi Mukiele, a defender, scored 3 goals and provided 4 assists, with 2 goals in his last 5 games

For Manchester United, Bruno Fernandes is a crucial player with 8 goals and 19 assists, plus 5 assists in his last 5 games

Matheus Cunha, an attacker, scored 9 goals and 2 assists, scoring twice in his last 5 games

Kobbie Mainoo in midfield has 1 goal and 2 assists, with his form rising and 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Robin Roefs is Sunderland's goalkeeper and has recorded 10 clean sheets this season

Senne Lammens is Manchester United's goalkeeper with 6 clean sheets this season

Roefs has an average rating of 6.97 in 32 appearances, while Lammens is at 6.72 in 29 appearances

Influences

The playing surface is grass

The home advantage for Sunderland is reflected in an average of 1.05 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per home game

The Stadium of Light has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 5 games

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