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Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United

09/05/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Brighton & Hove Albion
2.0
Total xG
2.8
Leeds United
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
B&HALU

Brighton & Hove Albion

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.44
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Mats Wieffer not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

Leeds United

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap)
-0.11
Brenden Aaronson on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Jaka Bijol on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Joe Rodon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Leeds United: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/10 games, last 28)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

23%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Strong home win prediction: The mathematical model estimates a 64% probability of a home win with 1.97 expected goals for Brighton
  • Offensive upward trend: Brighton currently averages 2.8 goals per match, scoring more frequently than their season average of 1.6
  • Tactical dominance: Brighton averaged 69% possession and 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Leeds United concedes an average of 2.19 goals per away match
  • Struggling attack: Leeds United's goal production has stalled, recently averaging just 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.5
Overview

Brighton & Hove Albion (10th place, 3 points) host Leeds United (9th place, 4 points) at The American Express Community Stadium

Premier League clash on September 5, 2026, 3:00 PM

A mid-table battle early in the season

Form

Brighton shows inconsistent form with LDWWL in their last matches

They recently suffered a narrow 3-4 defeat against Chelsea

Leeds United appears slightly more stable with DWLWD, recently recording a 1-1 draw against Brentford

Statistics

Brighton averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game this season

Leeds United struggles heavily on the road, conceding an average of 2.19 goals per away match

The visitors managed only 2 clean sheets in 16 away matches

Head-to-Head

The historical record is balanced with one win for each side

In 2 meetings, Brighton scored 3 goals while Leeds United scored once

The last encounter ended in a 1-0 victory for Leeds United

Key Players

Pascal Groß shines in midfield with an average rating of 7.2 across 19 appearances

Maxim De Cuyper shows a rising trend with 2 goals this season

For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the main threat with 14 goals this season

Not nominated: Mats Wieffer (2 goals, 3 assists) for Brighton, and Brenden Aaronson (4 goals, 5 assists), Jaka Bijol (1 goal, 2 assists), Joe Rodon (2 goals) for Leeds United

Goalkeepers

Bart Verbruggen made 38 appearances this season, recording 10 clean sheets

James Trafford is in goal for Leeds, whose team kept 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Brighton enjoys home advantage with 1.36 goals scored per home match at their stadium

The last 5 games at The American Express Community Stadium all produced over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.4 goals per match

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