Match report →
Brighton & Hove Albion – Leeds United1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.97
Total xG
2.76
Leeds United
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brighton & Hove Albion | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.35 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Mats Wieffer not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Brenden Aaronson on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Jaka Bijol on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Joe Rodon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Strong home win prediction: The mathematical model estimates a 64% probability of a home win with 1.97 expected goals for Brighton
- Offensive upward trend: Brighton currently averages 2.8 goals per match, scoring more frequently than their season average of 1.6
- Tactical dominance: Brighton averaged 69% possession and 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Away weakness: Leeds United concedes an average of 2.19 goals per away match
- Struggling attack: Leeds United's goal production has stalled, recently averaging just 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.5
All probabilities
Result
Brighton & Hove Albion64%
Draw23%
Leeds United13%
Double chance
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw87%
Leeds United or draw36%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Leeds United: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/10 games, last 28)
Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 · Leeds United 3-5-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 13 P. Groß
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 18 A. Stach
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
- 19 N. Okafor
Substitutes
- 23 J. Steele
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 4 P. Struijk
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 20 J. da Costa
- 49 N. Oriola
- 10 H. Wilson
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 23 J. Bahoya
- 26 M. Bard
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 7 D. James
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 15 J. Bijol
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →