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Premier League

Newcastle United - AFC Bournemouth

09/05/2026, 11:30 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Newcastle United
1.7
Total xG
3.8
AFC Bournemouth
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:1

7%

1:3

6%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
NUAB

Newcastle United

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.23
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Bruno GuimarĆ£es not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Nick Woltemade not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists)
William Osula not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists)
49% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

AFC Bournemouth

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.23
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Eli Kroupi not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists)
Marcos Senesi not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    AFC Bournemouth: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Newcastle United: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Newcastle United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Newcastle United: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

23%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

73%

Under 2.5

27%

Over 3.5

52%

Under 3.5

48%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

72%

No

28%

Key Factors
  • High goal probability: The model predicts a 73% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score
  • Head-to-head advantage for Bournemouth: The visitors are unbeaten in 5 matches against Newcastle (2 wins, 3 draws)
  • Newcastle recently averaged 4.2 shots on target with balanced possession (49%) in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Bruno GuimarĆ£es, Nick Woltemade, William Osula are missing, with only 59% of the team's goal-scoring threat available
  • Bournemouth's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Newcastle's goal production is currently stalling at 1.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8
Overview

Newcastle United (7th place, 4 points) hosts AFC Bournemouth (14th place, 1 point) at St. James' Park

Premier League match on September 5, 2026, 12:30 PM

The hosts aim to solidify their position in the upper half, while Bournemouth seeks their first win of the season

Form

Newcastle United in DWLDW form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Won their last match against Tottenham Hotspur 2-0

AFC Bournemouth in WDDLD form with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Most recently drew 1-1 against Everton

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Newcastle United averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per season

In 26 home matches, Newcastle scored an average of 1.38 goals and conceded 1.15

AFC Bournemouth scores an average of 1.53 goals and concedes 1.42

In 19 away matches, Bournemouth concedes an average of 1.79 goals while scoring 1.53

Head-to-Head

Total of 5 head-to-head matches in the database

No home wins for Newcastle, 2 wins for Bournemouth, and 3 draws

Goal record of 6:10 from Newcastle United's perspective

The last encounter on April 18, 2026, ended 1-2 in favor of Bournemouth

Key Players

Anthony Elanga with 4 goals in his last 5 matches and a rating of 7.23

Yoane Wissa recently contributed 3 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.22

Lewis Hall impressed with a rating of 7.09 in his last 5 appearances

Marcus Tavernier scored 2 goals with a recent rating of 7.42

Adrien Truffert contributed 2 assists with a rating of 7.28

Alex Scott recorded 1 goal and a rating of 7.16 in 3 matches

Goalkeepers

Lukas Hornicek in goal for Newcastle United

Djordje Petrovic is in goal for Bournemouth with a seasonal rating of 6.80

Newcastle United kept 8 clean sheets this season

AFC Bournemouth achieved 11 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on grass at St. James' Park

The last 5 matches at this venue averaged 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals in all of these 5 games

Newcastle scored 36 goals in 26 home matches

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