Match report →
Newcastle United – AFC Bournemouth2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Newcastle United
1.71
Total xG
3.76
AFC Bournemouth
2.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Bruno Guimarães not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Nick Woltemade not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| William Osula not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 49% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Eli Kroupi not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marcos Senesi not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 86% available) |
Key factors
- High goal probability: The model predicts a 73% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score
- Head-to-head advantage for Bournemouth: The visitors are unbeaten in 5 matches against Newcastle (2 wins, 3 draws)
- Newcastle recently averaged 4.2 shots on target with balanced possession (49%) in recent matches
Risks
- Bruno Guimarães, Nick Woltemade, William Osula are missing, with only 59% of the team's goal-scoring threat available
- Bournemouth's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.8
- Newcastle's goal production is currently stalling at 1.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.8
All probabilities
Result
Newcastle United32%
Draw23%
AFC Bournemouth45%
Double chance
Newcastle United or draw55%
AFC Bournemouth or draw68%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:1
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Newcastle United: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Newcastle United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Newcastle United: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 · AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 37 A. Dedić
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 3 L. Hall
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 67 L. Miley
- 19 A. Elanga
- 28 J. Willock
- 11 H. Barnes
- 9 Y. Wissa
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 8 A. Scott
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitutes
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 20 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 41 J. Ramsey
- 1 N. Pope
- 5 F. Schär
- 23 J. Murphy
- 2 V. Livramento
- 14 S. Steur
- 24 J. Sánchez Velasco
- 18 B. Diakité
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 10 R. Christie
- 4 L. Cook
- 7 D. Brooks
- 29 D. Jebbison
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
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