Match report →
Manchester City – Coventry City1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Manchester City
1.57
Total xG
2.54
Coventry City
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester City | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.78 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Phil Foden on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Bernardo Silva not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical superiority: Manchester City controlled recent matches with an average of 60% possession and generated 5.4 shots on target per game
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 50% home win probability with 1.57 expected home goals
- Contrasting start: Table-toppers Manchester City collected maximum points, while Coventry City remains pointless at the bottom
Risks
- Prominent absentees: Phil Foden (7 goals, 5 assists) and Bernardo Silva (2 goals, 4 assists) are missing from Manchester City's starting lineup
- Stalling attack: Manchester City's recent goal production of 1.8 goals per match is below their season average of 2.2
All probabilities
Result
Manchester City50%
Draw28%
Coventry City22%
Double chance
Manchester City or draw78%
Coventry City or draw50%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester City: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Manchester City 4-2-3-1 · Coventry City 3-4-2-1
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 6 M. Guehi
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 17 E. Fernández
- 5 E. Anderson
- 42 A. Semenyo
- 10 M. Cherki
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 9 E. Haaland
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 24 A. Amenda
- 4 B. Thomas
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 16 O. Frank
- 6 M. Grimes
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 14 T. Awoniyi
Substitutes
- 28 G. Rulli
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 47 P. Foden
- 21 R. Aït Nouri
- 27 M. Nunes
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 82 R. Lewis
- 56 R. McAidoo
- 75 F. Samba
- 25 D. Bentley
- 18 L. Tchaouna
- 22 J. Latibeaudiere
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 9 E. Simms
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 38 G. Hamer
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
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