Match report →
Brentford – Sunderland1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Brentford
2.00
Total xG
3.16
Sunderland
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brentford | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.37 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Mathias Jensen not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Trai Hume on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Defensive home advantage: Brentford's compact home defense (0.91 goals conceded average) meets Sunderland's vulnerable away defense allowing 1.87 goals
- Tactical structure: Brentford recently averaged 4.0 shots on target, while Sunderland averaged 4.2 attempts in their recent matches
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a solid home win probability of 56%
Risks
- Sunderland's away weakness with an average of 1.87 goals conceded per game on the road
- Brentford's stalling goal production recently with only 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.6
All probabilities
Result
Brentford56%
Draw24%
Sunderland20%
Double chance
Brentford or draw80%
Sunderland or draw44%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sunderland: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
- Brentford: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Brentford 4-2-3-1 · Sunderland 4-2-3-1
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 22 N. Collins
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 18 M. Sangare
- 27 V. Janelt
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 7 K. Schade
- 9 Thiago
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 4 K. Danso
- 5 D. Ballard
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 12 T. Meunier
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 9 B. Brobbey
Substitutes
- 2 A. Hickey
- 14 F. Carvalho
- 3 R. Henry
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 6 Y. Yarmoliuk
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
- 19 J. Anthony
- 44 J. Schuster
- 6 D. Methalie
- 39 M. Fofana
- 18 W. Isidor
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 32 T. Hume
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 11 C. Rigg
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 29 J. Ahoka Jules
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