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Premier League

Brentford - Sunderland

09/05/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Brentford
2.0
Total xG
3.2
Sunderland
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BRESUN

Brentford

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Mathias Jensen not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)

Sunderland

Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Trai Hume on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sunderland: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Everton: 2 goals (81', 90+1')

  • 2
    Brentford: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

24%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Defensive home advantage: Brentford's compact home defense (0.91 goals conceded average) meets Sunderland's vulnerable away defense allowing 1.87 goals
  • Tactical structure: Brentford recently averaged 4.0 shots on target, while Sunderland averaged 4.2 attempts in their recent matches
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a solid home win probability of 56%
Risk Factors
  • Sunderland's away weakness with an average of 1.87 goals conceded per game on the road
  • Brentford's stalling goal production recently with only 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.6
Overview

Brentford (6th place, 4 points) host Sunderland (12th place, 3 points) at the Gtech Community Stadium

Premier League match on September 5, 2026, 3:00 PM

The hosts aim to establish themselves in the upper half of the table

Form

Brentford form across all competitions: LDDWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Sunderland form across all competitions: DWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Sunderland recently recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Brentford's recent record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Brentford scored 55 goals in 38 season games (Avg. 1.45 per game)

Sunderland recorded 42 goals in 38 games (Avg. 1.11 per game)

The hosts conceded 1.37 goals on average, while the visitors conceded 1.26 on average

Sunderland concedes an average of 1.87 goals away from home while scoring only 1.13

Brentford concedes an average of only 0.91 goals at home

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in recent years ended evenly split

Both teams recorded 1 win each

The last encounter on January 7, 2026, ended in a 3-0 victory for Brentford

Key Players

Igor Thiago scored 22 goals this season with an average rating of 7.07

Kevin Schade scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists in 35 appearances

Enzo Le FĂ©e contributed 5 goals and 6 assists with an average rating of 7.02

Brian Brobbey scored 7 goals this season and netted 3 times in his last 5 games

Granit Xhaka recorded 1 goal, 6 assists, and an average rating of 7.13 in 34 appearances

Goalkeepers

CaoimhĂ­n Kelleher played 37 games this season with an average rating of 6.91

Robin Roefs made 35 appearances with an average rating of 6.94

In 38 league games, Brentford kept 10 clean sheets, while Sunderland recorded 11 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage is reflected in Brentford's home record with only 0.91 goals conceded per game

The Gtech Community Stadium averaged 2.8 goals per match over the last 5 games

Matches at the home stadium ended with over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases

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