Match report →
Everton – Manchester United2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Everton
1.09
Total xG
2.56
Manchester United
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Everton | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Iliman Ndiaye not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Michael Keane on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jake O'Brien on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tim Iroegbunam not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Amad Diallo not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Manchester United averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Manchester United is currently scoring more frequently with 2.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.9
- The prediction model forecasts an away win for Manchester United with a probability of 44%
Risks
- Everton will have to play without several regular starters such as Iliman Ndiaye
- Manchester United concedes an average of 1.53 goals per away game
- Limited data availability regarding duel statistics in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Everton26%
Draw29%
Manchester United44%
Double chance
Everton or draw56%
Manchester United or draw74%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: 10 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Manchester United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Everton 4-2-3-1 · Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 34 M. Röhl
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 22 B. Johnson
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19 T. George
- 11 T. Barry
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 23 L. Shaw
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 19 B. Mbeumo
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 9 M. Rashford
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Substitutes
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 10 J. Grealish
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 5 M. Keane
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 30 H. Hackney
- 58 B. Graham
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 30 B. Šeško
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 15 L. Yoro
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 26 A. Heaven
- 13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
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