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Premier League

Everton - Manchester United

09/06/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Everton
1.1
Total xG
2.6
Manchester United
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
EVEMU

Everton

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap)
-0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Iliman Ndiaye not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Michael Keane on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Jake O'Brien on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Tim Iroegbunam not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Manchester United

Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap)
+0.07
Amad Diallo not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Everton: 10 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Manchester United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

29%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Manchester United averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Manchester United is currently scoring more frequently with 2.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.9
  • The prediction model forecasts an away win for Manchester United with a probability of 44%
Risk Factors
  • Everton will have to play without several regular starters such as Iliman Ndiaye
  • Manchester United concedes an average of 1.53 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability regarding duel statistics in recent matches
Overview

Everton (10th place, 4 points) host Manchester United (12th place, 3 points) at the Hill Dickinson Stadium

Premier League match on September 6, 2026, 3:00 PM

Manchester United are favored with a 44% win probability according to mathematical predictions

Form

Everton shows inconsistent form with DLLWD

Most recently drawing 1-1 against AFC Bournemouth

Manchester United enters with form of DWWLW

Coming off a strong 5-2 home win against Ipswich Town

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Last season Everton scored an average of 1.24 goals per game and conceded 1.32

At home, Everton averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded

Manchester United averaged 1.82 goals scored per match while conceding 1.32

Away from home, the Red Devils averaged 1.76 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Everton, 2 wins for Manchester United, and 1 draw

The goal difference is 3-7 from Everton's perspective

The last meeting ended in a 0-1 away win for Manchester United on February 23, 2026

Key Players

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists this season with a 7.01 rating

James Tarkowski has 2 goals, 3 assists, and an average rating of 7.14

Thierno Barry has contributed 8 goals this season

Bruno Fernandes stands out with 9 goals and 21 assists with a 7.77 rating

Bryan Mbeumo has already scored 11 goals this season

Matheus Cunha has recorded 10 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Jordan Pickford is in goal for Everton and recorded 11 clean sheets last season

Senne Lammens guards the net for Manchester United and recorded 8 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place at Hill Dickinson Stadium on grass

The venue averages 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the 5 historical matches played at this ground

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