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Premier League

Hull City - Aston Villa

09/05/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Hull City
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Aston Villa
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
HCAV

Hull City

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.51
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11

Aston Villa

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.04
Ollie Watkins not in squad (16 goals, 3 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 67% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aston Villa: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 2
    Aston Villa: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)

  • 4
    John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

31%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Hull City is undefeated in their last 5 matches (DWWWW) while Aston Villa starts with two consecutive defeats
  • Tactical counter-attack: Hull averaged 3.2 shots on target with just 33% possession in recent matches
  • Balanced predictions: The mathematical model predicts an extremely close match with 34% home win and 35% away win
Risk Factors
  • Ollie Watkins is missing from Aston Villa's squad, leaving only 68% of their usual goal threat available
  • Low goal threat: Hull City averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Defensive weakness away: Aston Villa concedes an average of 1.69 goals per away game
Overview

Hull City hosts Aston Villa at the MKM Stadium

Premier League match on September 5, 2026, 5:30 PM

Surprise third-place Hull City (6 points) face bottom-placed Aston Villa (0 points)

A matchup with highly contrasting starts to the season

Form

Hull City is in strong shape with the form DWWWW

The hosts are coming off four consecutive victories

Aston Villa travels with the form WWWLL after two straight defeats

Form summary numbers: Hull with 4 wins and 1 draw, Villa with 3 wins and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Hull City scores an average of 1.49 goals and concedes 1.35 per season

Their home record stands at an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.42 conceded

Aston Villa scores an average of 1.47 goals and concedes 1.29 per game

Away from home Villa is defensively weaker with 1.69 goals conceded per match

Hull City kept 14 clean sheets this season compared to Villa's 9

Key Players

Oliver McBurnie is a key pillar in Hull's attack with 11 goals and 5 assists in 23 home matches

John Egan stabilizes the hosts' defense with 28 appearances at the MKM Stadium

Emiliano Buendía is a creative force in Villa's midfield with 6 goals and 2 assists this season

John McGinn adds significant threat from midfield with 5 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Konstantinos Tzolakis has played twice for Hull City at home this season, earning a strong 7.86 average rating

Zion Suzuki guarded the goal for Aston Villa in one away match so far

Hull City kept 14 clean sheets this season compared to 9 clean sheets for the visitors from Birmingham

Influences

The MKM Stadium features a natural grass pitch

Historical stadium statistics show an average of 1.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in only 2 of the last 5 home games, with just one match exceeding 2.5 goals

Hull City's home average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.42 conceded highlights their home-ground factor

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