Match report →
Hull City – Aston Villa0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Hull City
1.22
Total xG
2.47
Aston Villa
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hull City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Ollie Watkins not in squad (16 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 67% available) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Hull City is undefeated in their last 5 matches (DWWWW) while Aston Villa starts with two consecutive defeats
- Tactical counter-attack: Hull averaged 3.2 shots on target with just 33% possession in recent matches
- Balanced predictions: The mathematical model predicts an extremely close match with 34% home win and 35% away win
Risks
- Ollie Watkins is missing from Aston Villa's squad, leaving only 68% of their usual goal threat available
- Low goal threat: Hull City averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Defensive weakness away: Aston Villa concedes an average of 1.69 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Hull City34%
Draw31%
Aston Villa35%
Double chance
Hull City or draw65%
Aston Villa or draw66%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aston Villa: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Aston Villa: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)
- John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Hull City 5-4-1 · Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 32 N. Mendy
- 3 R. Giles
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 27 R. Slater
- 29 L. Gourna Douath
- 21 E. Stroud
- 9 O. McBurnie
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 2 M. Cash
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 5 T. Mings
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 8 B. Kamara
- 6 R. Barkley
- 7 J. McGinn
- 10 E. Buendía
- 53 G. Hemmings
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 47 R. Vaz
- 50 M. Cho
- 12 D. Phillips
- 23 M. Targett
- 7 S. Thomas
- 36 C. Mouzakitis
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 22 L. Herrington
- 14 J. Hjertø-Dahl
- 13 M. Ruggeri
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 40 M. Bizot
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 17 A. Garnacho
- 18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
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