Match report →
Liverpool – Fulham0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Liverpool
1.61
Total xG
2.57
Fulham
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Liverpool | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Cody Gakpo on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Alexis Mac Allister on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Milos Kerkez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rio Ngumoha on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 84% available) |
Key factors
- Squad impact for Liverpool: Only 71% of typical scoring threat is available with Cody Gakpo, Alexis Mac Allister, Milos Kerkez, and Rio Ngumoha missing
- Offensive potential: Liverpool averaged 6.2 shots on target with 58% possession in their recent matches
- Away vulnerability: Fulham concedes an average of 2.21 goals per away match, making them extremely vulnerable
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Liverpool had only 3 days of rest since their last match, compared to Fulham's 7 days of recovery
- Squad absences: Deficits in lineup depth for Liverpool due to missing key players could impact their consistency
- Limited data availability on historical H2H matchups prior to 2024
All probabilities
Result
Liverpool51%
Draw28%
Fulham21%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw79%
Fulham or draw49%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fulham: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Liverpool: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Fulham 4-2-3-1
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 29 B. Barcola
- 9 A. Isak
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 16 S. Berge
- 19 S. Charles
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 G. García Torres
Substitutes
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 3 W. Endo
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 32 E. Smith Rowe
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 5 J. Andersen
- 2 K. Tete
- 15 H. Larsson
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
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