Match report →
Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Aston Villa
2.14
Total xG
2.97
Nottingham Forest
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Matty Cash not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Igor Jesus on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical dominance: The model calculates a 66% probability of a home win for Aston Villa
- Head-to-head record: Aston Villa won the last direct duel clearly 4-0 and holds 3 H2H victories
- Tactical aspect: Aston Villa averaged 3.0 shots on target with 45% possession in recent matches
Risks
- Critical absence: Igor Jesus is missing for Nottingham Forest, leaving only 66% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Attack in a slump: Aston Villa's offensive production is stalling at 1.25 goals per game compared to their 1.69 season average
- Statistical trend: Nottingham Forest remains vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.27 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Aston Villa66%
Draw22%
Nottingham Forest12%
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw88%
Nottingham Forest or draw34%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nottingham Forest: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)
- John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 8 B. Kamara
- 6 R. Barkley
- 7 J. McGinn
- 10 E. Buendía
- 53 G. Hemmings
- 11 N. Jackson
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 2 O. Diomande
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 21 X. Schlager
- 3 N. Williams
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 19 L. Delap
Substitutes
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 13 M. Ruggeri
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 5 T. Mings
- 40 M. Bizot
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 17 A. Garnacho
- 18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
- 25 L. Netz
- 12 J. Furtado
- 15 A. Muinga
- 11 I. da Cruz
- 8 N. Domínguez
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 22 R. Yates
- 9 C. Wood
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