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Premier League

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

09/12/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Aston Villa
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Nottingham Forest
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
AVNF

Aston Villa

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap)
+0.12
Matty Cash not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Nottingham Forest

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap)
-0.26
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Igor Jesus on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nottingham Forest: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Aston Villa with John McGinn starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)

  • 3
    John McGinn: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical dominance: The model calculates a 66% probability of a home win for Aston Villa
  • Head-to-head record: Aston Villa won the last direct duel clearly 4-0 and holds 3 H2H victories
  • Tactical aspect: Aston Villa averaged 3.0 shots on target with 45% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Critical absence: Igor Jesus is missing for Nottingham Forest, leaving only 66% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Attack in a slump: Aston Villa's offensive production is stalling at 1.25 goals per game compared to their 1.69 season average
  • Statistical trend: Nottingham Forest remains vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.27 goals per game
Overview

Aston Villa (18th place, 1 point) host Nottingham Forest (16th place, 2 points) at Villa Park

Premier League match on September 12, 2026, 4:00 PM

Both teams aim to correct their poor start and collect vital points at the bottom of the table

Form

Aston Villa showing a form of WLLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in recent matches

Nottingham Forest are still waiting for their first win with a form of LDLDD

The visitors have registered 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Statistics

Aston Villa averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season

Nottingham Forest scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.34

Aston Villa kept 9 clean sheets, Nottingham Forest also recorded 9

In 20 of 38 games, over 2.5 goals were scored for both teams

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in recent history

Aston Villa dominates with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Nottingham Forest and 1 draw

The last match ended in a clear 4-0 home win for Aston Villa on May 7, 2026

Key Players

John McGinn stands out with 5 goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 6.9

Emiliano Buendía scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Morgan Gibbs-White leads the visitors with 15 goals and 4 assists with a strong rating of 7.04

Dan Ndoye has 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Goalkeepers

Zion Suzuki starts in goal for Aston Villa with a home rating of 6.37

Matz Sels guards Nottingham Forest's goal with an overall rating of 6.80

Both clubs have already completed 9 clean sheets each this season

Influences

Home advantage at Villa Park with historically 4.2 goals scored per game on average

The historical BTTS rate for matches in this stadium is 60%

The game will be played on natural grass

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