Match report →
Chelsea – Hull City2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Chelsea
1.84
Total xG
2.76
Hull City
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chelsea | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a home win probability of 58% and 1.84 expected goals for Chelsea
- Tactical comparison: Chelsea recently averaged 4.8 shots on target per game, compared to Hull City's average of 3.8
- Offensive potential: Chelsea is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.9
Risks
- Defensive stability of the visitors: Hull City conceded an average of 0 goals in recent matches
- Limited data availability regarding the current player statistics for the away team
All probabilities
Result
Chelsea58%
Draw25%
Hull City17%
Double chance
Chelsea or draw83%
Hull City or draw42%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chelsea: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Chelsea 4-2-3-1 · Hull City 5-4-1
Chelsea
- 1 D. Martínez
- 27 M. Gusto
- 3 W. Fofana
- 6 L. Colwill
- 21 J. Hato
- 24 R. James
- 45 R. Lavia
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 9 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 32 N. Mendy
- 3 R. Giles
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 25 M. Crooks
- 27 R. Slater
- 21 E. Stroud
- 9 O. McBurnie
Substitutes
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 4 V. Barco
- 39 M. Penders
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 11 J. Bynoe-Gittens
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 23 G. Quenda
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 47 R. Vaz
- 50 M. Cho
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 12 D. Phillips
- 23 M. Targett
- 7 S. Thomas
- 29 L. Gourna Douath
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 22 L. Herrington
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