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Premier League

Chelsea - Hull City

09/12/2026, 02:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Chelsea
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Hull City
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CHEHC

Chelsea

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.08

Hull City

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.76
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chelsea: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

25%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a home win probability of 58% and 1.84 expected goals for Chelsea
  • Tactical comparison: Chelsea recently averaged 4.8 shots on target per game, compared to Hull City's average of 3.8
  • Offensive potential: Chelsea is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.9
Risk Factors
  • Defensive stability of the visitors: Hull City conceded an average of 0 goals in recent matches
  • Limited data availability regarding the current player statistics for the away team
Overview

Chelsea (4th place, 6 points) host Hull City (3rd place, 7 points) at Stamford Bridge

Premier League match on September 12, 2026, 2:00 PM

Both teams started the season strongly and fight for top positions

Form

Chelsea with form WLWWL (3 wins, 2 losses in all competitions)

Hull City unbeaten with form WWWWD (4 wins, 1 draw)

Chelsea lost their last match to Arsenal, while Hull City drew against Aston Villa

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Chelsea scored an avg of 1.53 goals per game last season and conceded an avg of 1.37

Hull City reached an avg of 1.49 goals and conceded an avg of 1.35 per game

Chelsea kept 9 clean sheets on average, while Hull City achieved 14

At home Chelsea scored 1.53 goals on average, while Hull City scored an avg of 1.48 away

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Chelsea won that meeting 4-0 away on February 13, 2026

Hull City is still waiting for their first goal against Chelsea

Key Players

JoĂŁo Pedro is Chelsea's top scorer with 15 season goals and 5 assists

Cole Palmer scored 10 goals and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 6.97

Pedro Neto has contributed 5 goals and 6 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez starts in goal for Chelsea, with 3 games played at this venue and an average rating of 7.28

Hull City relies on Konstantinos Tzolakis in goal

Influences

Stamford Bridge recorded an average of 3.6 goals per game in recent matches

Chelsea averaged 1.53 goals scored per home game over the season

Hull City averaged 1.48 goals scored per away game over the season

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