Match report →
Crystal Palace – Ipswich Town2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Crystal Palace
1.72
Total xG
2.65
Ipswich Town
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.81 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Muñoz not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Eddie Nketiah not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 55% probability for a Crystal Palace home victory
- Tactical shots threat: Ipswich Town averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent games compared to Crystal Palace's 3.2
- Perfect historic record: Crystal Palace won both previous head-to-head meetings keeping a clean sheet
Risks
- Squad depletion: Daniel Muñoz (4 goals, 3 assists) and Eddie Nketiah (2 goals) are missing, leaving only 63% of the active goals share available
- Attacking dip: Crystal Palace's goal average drops to 1.2 in recent matches compared to a 1.4 season average
- Restricted player performance statistics in the provided dataset for the visiting Ipswich Town team
All probabilities
Result
Crystal Palace55%
Draw27%
Ipswich Town19%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw81%
Ipswich Town or draw45%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Crystal Palace: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Crystal Palace: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 · Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1
Crystal Palace
- 44 W. Benítez
- 26 C. Richards
- 5 A. Disasi
- 21 H. Ahanor
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 23 Q. Timber
- 20 A. Wharton
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 18 D. Kamada
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Ipswich Town
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 6 I. Diop
- 24 J. Greaves
- 3 L. Davis
- 23 S. Lukić
- 25 E. Palacios
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 J. Enciso
- 47 J. Clarke
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Substitutes
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 33 B. Chilwell
- 11 D. McNeil
- 28 C. Doucoure
- 19 W. Hughes
- 31 R. Matthews
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 17 T. Tomiyasu
- 12 Z. Gozo
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 32 M. Nuñez
- 29 C. Akpom
- 4 C. Kipre
- 11 J. Philogene-Bidace
- 28 C. Walton
- 38 D. Maeda
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