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Premier League

Liverpool - Chelsea

05/09/2026, 11:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Liverpool
1.8
Total xG
3.2
Chelsea
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LIVCHE

Liverpool

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.41
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
Mohamed Salah not in squad (7 goals, 6 assists)
Florian Wirtz on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Alexander Isak on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Chelsea

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.47
Declining form (0.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.47
Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.13
Pedro Neto not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Trevoh Chalobah on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Liverpool with Andrew Robertson: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Chelsea with Pedro Neto: 0.2 goals/90 min. Without: 8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Chelsea: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Liverpool: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

26%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 46% home win probability for Liverpool and a goal difference of 1.80 to 1.37
  • Liverpool's form (3 wins, 2 losses in 5 games) is significantly better than Chelsea's (1 win, 4 losses in 5 games)
  • Liverpool shows consistent goal production (currently avg. 1.8 goals per game), while Chelsea's offense is stagnating (currently avg. 0.4 goals per game)
Risk Factors
  • Chelsea's goal production is currently declining, with an average of only 0.4 goals per game
  • Chelsea registered an average of only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • The head-to-head record between the two teams is balanced, with 2 wins for Liverpool, 2 for Chelsea, and 1 draw
Overview

Liverpool (4th place, 58 points) host Chelsea (9th place, 48 points) at Anfield

Premier League match on May 9, 2026, 1:30 PM

The Reds are fighting for Champions League spots, while Chelsea are in the midfield of the table

Form

Liverpool's current form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is WLWWL

In the last five games, Liverpool recorded 3 wins and 2 losses

The most recent match ended in a 2-3 away loss against Manchester United

Chelsea's form across all competitions is LLLWL

Chelsea recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five games

Chelsea lost their last game 1-3 at home against Nottingham Forest

Statistics

Liverpool averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the Reds improve to an average of 1.68 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded

According to advanced stats, Liverpool scores consistently at ~1.8 goals per game

Chelsea averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per game over the season

Away, the values are 1.58 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game

Chelsea's goal production is currently stagnating at 0.4 goals, while the season average is 2.0

At the venue Anfield, there were an average of 2.8 goals in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games (40%), and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games (40%)

Head-to-Head

In 5 recent head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Liverpool, 2 wins for Chelsea, and 1 draw

Liverpool scored 9 goals and Chelsea scored 8 goals in these matches

The last encounter on October 4, 2025, saw Chelsea win 2-1 away

Key Players

For Liverpool, Dominik Szoboszlai (6 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.36 rating), Cody Gakpo (7 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.12 rating), and Ryan Gravenberch (4 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.06 rating) stand out

Ryan Gravenberch's form is declining, with a form trend delta of -0.30

Not in Liverpool's lineup: Mohamed Salah (7G/6A), Florian Wirtz (5G/3A), Alexander Isak (3G/1A)

For Chelsea, JoĆ£o Pedro (15 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.14 rating), Enzo FernĆ”ndez (8 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.25 rating), and Cole Palmer (9 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.99 rating) are important players

The form of JoĆ£o Pedro and Cole Palmer is declining, with form trend deltas of -0.42 and -0.60 respectively

Enzo FernƔndez shows a rising form trend with a delta of 0.36

Not in Chelsea's lineup: Pedro Neto (5G/4A), Trevoh Chalobah (3G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Liverpool's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili has kept 0 clean sheets in 8 season appearances

Chelsea's goalkeeper Filip JĆørgensen has kept 0 clean sheets in 4 season appearances

Liverpool has recorded a total of 10 clean sheets in 35 games this season

Chelsea has recorded 9 clean sheets in 35 games

Influences

Liverpool benefits from home advantage at Anfield

The Reds score an average of 1.68 goals and concede 0.95 goals at home

Anfield stadium has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 40% of the last 5 games at Anfield, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

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