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Premier League

Manchester United - Manchester City

09/13/2026, 03:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Manchester United
1.9
Total xG
3.4
Manchester City
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
MUMC

Manchester United

Attack strength (1.84x league average)
+0.60
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.26
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.11
Luke Shaw not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Manchester City

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.35
Attack strength (1.34x league average)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.05
J. Doku not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester City: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')

  • 2
    Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 4
    Manchester United: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Manchester United: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 6
    Manchester United: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

25%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Manchester United is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals average) than their season average (1.9)
  • Manchester City's ongoing 4-game winning streak solidifies their strong momentum
  • Both teams play possession-dominant football with United averaging 7.2 shots on target and City 6.4 in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Manchester United has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Manchester City concedes 1.31 goals per away game on average making them more vulnerable on the road
  • The absence of J. Doku reduces City's offensive depth
Overview

Derby time at Old Trafford

Manchester United (13th place, 4 points) host Manchester City (2nd place, 9 points)

Premier League clash on September 13, 2026, 4:30 PM

The hosts look to climb into the upper half of the table while City target the top spot

Form

Manchester United show a form of WLWDW with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Manchester City travel with a run of 4 consecutive wins (form: LWWWW)

The visitors are in stronger shape and aim to extend their perfect league run

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Manchester United average 1.86 goals scored per home game

Manchester City average 2.00 goals scored per away game

Defensive stats favor City with only 0.92 goals conceded per game on average this season

Old Trafford saw high-scoring games with an average of 4.8 goals in the last 5 matches

Head-to-Head

United dominated recent encounters with 2 wins from 4 matches

The last direct duel ended in a 2-0 win for Manchester United on January 17, 2026

The overall goal difference in recent matches is balanced at 4-4

Key Players

Bruno Fernandes contributed 9 goals and 21 assists this season

Bryan Mbeumo is in stable form with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances

Matheus Cunha has registered 10 goals and 2 assists this season

Erling Haaland is the top threat with 27 season goals and 5 goals in his last 5 matches

Rayan Cherki shines in City's midfield with 12 season assists

Phil Foden completes City's strong attack with 7 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Senne Lammens guards United's goal with an average rating of 6.76

Gianluigi Donnarumma starts in goal for City and has kept 16 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage at Old Trafford is statistically significant with an average of 4.8 goals per game

The match is played on natural grass

The mathematical model indicates a 48% probability for a home win

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