Match report →
Manchester United – Manchester City0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Manchester United
1.93
Total xG
3.38
Manchester City
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.84x league average) | +0.60 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Luke Shaw not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| J. Doku not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Manchester United is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals average) than their season average (1.9)
- Manchester City's ongoing 4-game winning streak solidifies their strong momentum
- Both teams play possession-dominant football with United averaging 7.2 shots on target and City 6.4 in recent games
Risks
- Manchester United has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Manchester City concedes 1.31 goals per away game on average making them more vulnerable on the road
- The absence of J. Doku reduces City's offensive depth
All probabilities
Result
Manchester United48%
Draw25%
Manchester City28%
Double chance
Manchester United or draw72%
Manchester City or draw52%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester City: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Manchester United: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Manchester United: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Manchester United: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 19 B. Mbeumo
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 9 M. Rashford
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 27 M. Nunes
- 6 M. Guehi
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 5 E. Anderson
- 17 E. Fernández
- 47 P. Foden
- 10 M. Cherki
- 42 A. Semenyo
- 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 30 B. Šeško
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 15 L. Yoro
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 26 A. Heaven
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 31 S. Lacey
- 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 28 G. Rulli
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 82 R. Lewis
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 37 A. Andrade Elias
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