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Leeds United – Newcastle United4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Leeds United
1.52
Total xG
2.45
Newcastle United
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Leeds United | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.65 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Brenden Aaronson on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Jaka Bijol on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Joe Rodon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| William Osula not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Joe Willock on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Analytical favorites: The mathematical model predicts Leeds United with a 50% home win probability and 1.52 expected goals
- Offensive gap for Leeds: The home side has struggled recently in goal scoring, averaging only 0.8 goals per match compared to their 1.5 season average
- Critical absence for the visitors: Newcastle United travels without William Osula and Joe Willock, reducing their usual starting eleven strength to 72%
Risks
- Quiet attack from Leeds: The home side averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in their recent outings
- Vulnerable away defense: Newcastle United concedes an average of 2.08 goals per game on the road
All probabilities
Result
Leeds United50%
Draw29%
Newcastle United21%
Double chance
Leeds United or draw79%
Newcastle United or draw50%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Newcastle United: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Leeds United: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Newcastle United: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Newcastle United: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Leeds United 3-5-2 · Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 18 A. Stach
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
- 19 N. Okafor
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 37 A. Dedić
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 3 L. Hall
- 67 L. Miley
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 23 J. Murphy
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 11 H. Barnes
- 20 M. Fernandez Pardo
Substitutes
- 10 H. Wilson
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 23 J. Bahoya
- 26 M. Bard
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 7 D. James
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 15 J. Bijol
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 41 J. Ramsey
- 1 N. Pope
- 5 F. Schär
- 2 V. Livramento
- 28 J. Willock
- 14 S. Steur
- 76 M. Miley
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