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Premier League

Leeds United - Newcastle United

09/14/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Leeds United
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Newcastle United
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LUNU

Leeds United

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.20
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.09
Brenden Aaronson on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Jaka Bijol on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Joe Rodon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Newcastle United

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.65
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
William Osula not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists)
Joe Willock on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Leeds United with Noah Okafor starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Newcastle United: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

  • 4
    Leeds United: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Newcastle United: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 6
    Newcastle United: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

29%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Analytical favorites: The mathematical model predicts Leeds United with a 50% home win probability and 1.52 expected goals
  • Offensive gap for Leeds: The home side has struggled recently in goal scoring, averaging only 0.8 goals per match compared to their 1.5 season average
  • Critical absence for the visitors: Newcastle United travels without William Osula and Joe Willock, reducing their usual starting eleven strength to 72%
Risk Factors
  • Quiet attack from Leeds: The home side averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in their recent outings
  • Vulnerable away defense: Newcastle United concedes an average of 2.08 goals per game on the road
Overview

Leeds United host Newcastle United at Elland Road

Premier League match on September 14, 2026, 8:00 PM

A close battle in mid-table: Newcastle is in 10th place, with Leeds right behind in 11th

Both sides have started the season with 5 points from 3 matches

Form

Leeds United form is WLWDD

They come off back-to-back draws in the league

Newcastle United shows a form of WLDWD

Most recently drew 2-2 against Bournemouth

Both teams recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five outings

Statistics

Leeds averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per season match

At home, their defense is solid, conceding only 0.95 goals per game

Newcastle averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded overall

The visitors struggle away from home, conceding an average of 2.08 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in recent history

Newcastle United leads with one win and one draw

The last encounter ended in a spectacular 4-3 win for Newcastle on January 7, 2026

Leeds United is still searching for their first win against the Magpies

Key Players

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Leeds' top forward with 14 season goals

Jayden Bogle is in rising form with one goal and one assist in his last five appearances

Yoane Wissa is in great shape for Newcastle, scoring 3 goals in his last five games

Goalkeepers

James Trafford guards the net for Leeds, sporting a high home rating of 7.29

Lukas Hornicek starts in goal for Newcastle United

Both teams have recorded 8 clean sheets in the current season

Influences

Leeds profits from home advantage, conceding only 21 goals in 22 home fixtures

Historically, matches at Elland Road average 2.0 goals per game

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