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Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur - Everton

09/12/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Everton
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
THEVE

Tottenham Hotspur

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.28
Richarlison not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists)
Mathys Tel on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Pedro Porro not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Conor Gallagher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

Everton

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Iliman Ndiaye not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Merlin Röhl not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 77% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Everton: 11 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Everton: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Manchester United: 2 goals (83', 90+6')

  • 3
    Everton: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Everton: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Only 46% of Tottenham's regular starting lineup strength is available, with key players like Richarlison, Mathys Tel, Pedro Porro, and Conor Gallagher not starting
  • Tottenham averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Everton's 4.6
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Tottenham Hotspur with a 44% probability
Risk Factors
  • Tottenham's recent form trend is negative, with goalscoring stalling at 0.5 goals per match compared to a season average of 1.5
  • Tottenham Hotspur failed to score a single goal in their last three league matches
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (17th place, 1 point) host Everton (8th place, 5 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Premier League match on September 12, 2026, 5:30 PM

Spurs are under early-season pressure

Form

Tottenham Hotspur form is LWLLD, coming off a draw against Nottingham Forest

Everton form is LLWDD, with two consecutive draws

Stats show 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses for the hosts

Visitors record 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tottenham average 1.26 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per season

Everton score 1.24 goals and concede 1.32 on average

Spurs average 1.29 goals scored at home

Everton score 1.24 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Tottenham Hotspur leads with 3 wins to Everton's 1

The last match ended in a 1-0 win for the home side on May 24, 2026

Overall goal difference is 10:3 in favor of Tottenham Hotspur

Key Players

Micky van de Ven (Defender) with a season average rating of 6.75

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Midfielder) with 8 goals and a rising form trend

James Tarkowski (Defender) with an average rating of 7.14 in 37 appearances

Not nominated for Everton: Iliman Ndiaye (6 goals, 3 assists) and Merlin Röhl (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Antonín Kinský starts for Spurs, having achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Jordan Pickford guards Everton's net with 11 clean sheets in the campaign

Influences

Home advantage at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with an average of 2.4 goals per match

The match will be played on grass surface

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