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Tottenham Hotspur – Everton0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tottenham Hotspur
1.54
Total xG
2.74
Everton
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Richarlison not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Mathys Tel on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pedro Porro not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Conor Gallagher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Iliman Ndiaye not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Merlin Röhl not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 77% available) |
Key factors
- Only 46% of Tottenham's regular starting lineup strength is available, with key players like Richarlison, Mathys Tel, Pedro Porro, and Conor Gallagher not starting
- Tottenham averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Everton's 4.6
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Tottenham Hotspur with a 44% probability
Risks
- Tottenham's recent form trend is negative, with goalscoring stalling at 0.5 goals per match compared to a season average of 1.5
- Tottenham Hotspur failed to score a single goal in their last three league matches
All probabilities
Result
Tottenham Hotspur44%
Draw28%
Everton28%
Double chance
Tottenham Hotspur or draw72%
Everton or draw56%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: 11 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Everton: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Manchester United: 2 goals (83', 90+6')
- Everton: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Everton: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 · Everton 4-1-4-1
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 14 A. Gray
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 3 A. Robertson
- 30 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 16 S. Tonali
- 17 S. Moreira de Oliveira
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 22 O. Marmoush
- 19 D. Solanke
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 37 J. Garner
- 22 B. Johnson
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19 T. George
- 11 T. Barry
Substitutes
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 39 M. Dúbravka
- 4 O. Adarabioyo
- 33 B. Davies
- 20 M. Kudus
- 15 L. Bergvall
- 10 J. Maddison
- 11 M. Tel
- 10 J. Grealish
- 31 T. King
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 5 M. Keane
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 30 H. Hackney
- 58 B. Graham
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