Match report →
Coventry City – Brighton & Hove Albion0 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Coventry City
1.12
Total xG
2.27
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.80 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.43 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Mats Wieffer not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Brighton & Hove Albion controlled recent matches with 72% average possession and 6.2 shots on target
- In-form attack: Brighton & Hove Albion currently score 3.0 goals per game, well above their season average of 1.6
- Coventry struggles: The hosts have failed to score in their last three league matches
Risks
- Limited data availability regarding Coventry City's squad and player form
- Midfield absence: Mats Wieffer is missing from the squad for Brighton & Hove Albion
- Declining attack: Coventry City's goal output dropped recently to 1.4 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Coventry City33%
Draw32%
Brighton & Hove Albion35%
Double chance
Coventry City or draw65%
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw67%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
0:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (11/9 games, last 28)
Lineups
Coventry City 3-4-2-1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 24 A. Amenda
- 4 B. Thomas
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 16 O. Frank
- 6 M. Grimes
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 10 E. Mason-Clark
- 14 T. Awoniyi
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 13 P. Groß
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Substitutes
- 49 S. Cherif
- 25 D. Bentley
- 17 L. Tchaouna
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 38 G. Hamer
- 12 S. Mfuni
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 23 J. Steele
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 4 P. Struijk
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 20 J. da Costa
- 59 Y. Ibrahim
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →