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Premier League

AFC Bournemouth - Brentford

09/12/2026, 02:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
AFC Bournemouth
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Brentford
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ABBRE

AFC Bournemouth

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.17
10% of goal output missing (only 91% available)

Brentford

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Dango Ouattara on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists)
Mikkel Damsgaard on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Mathias Jensen not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Nathan Collins not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Michael Kayode on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Brentford: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)

  • 4
    AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)

  • 5
    Brentford: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Brentford's away defensive struggle: The visitors concede an average of 2.07 goals per game on the road
  • Brentford's squad impact: Due to the absence of 5 key players including Dango Ouattara and Mikkel Damsgaard, only 76% of their usual squad strength is available
  • Balanced possession: Both teams averaged almost identical possession shares of around 47% and 48% in their recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Stagnant home offense: Bournemouth's recent goal production has slowed down to 1.2 goals compared to their 1.8 season average
  • Low offensive efficiency: Both teams averaged only 4.0 shots on target per game in their recent matches
  • Defensive injuries: Brentford must cope without defenders B. Fredrick and S. van den Berg
Overview

AFC Bournemouth (15th place, 2 points) host Brentford (5th place, 5 points) at the Vitality Stadium

Premier League match on September 12, 2026, 3:00 PM

The hosts are still searching for their first win of the season, while the visitors aim to stay near the top

Form

AFC Bournemouth show an inconsistent form of DDLDD in their recent outings

During this period, they recorded 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss

Brentford travel with a recent form of DDWDD consisting of 1 win, 4 draws, and 0 losses

Both teams finished their respective last matches with a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Bournemouth score an average of 1.53 goals and concede 1.42 goals per match this season

At home, they average 1.53 goals scored and only 1.05 goals conceded

Brentford score an average of 1.45 goals and concede 1.37 goals per match

On the road, Brentford's defense struggles, conceding an average of 2.07 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 direct duels, Bournemouth recorded 0 wins, while Brentford claimed 3 victories

Only 1 encounter ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 4:9 in favor of Brentford

The most recent match on March 3, 2026, ended in a 0:0 stalemate

Key Players

Marcus Tavernier stands out with 7 season goals and 4 assists

Striker Evanilson has contributed 6 goals and 2 assists so far

Defender Adrien Truffert has assisted 6 goals and scored 1 of his own

Igor Thiago shines in attack with an impressive 22 season goals and 1 assist

Kevin Schade follows in offense with 8 goals and 3 assists

Keane Lewis-Potter has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Djordje Petrovic is in goal for Bournemouth with a season average rating of 6.80

CaoimhĂ­n Kelleher guards the net for Brentford with a season average rating of 6.91

Kelleher has shown strong recent form with an average rating of 7.02 over his last 5 matches

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Vitality Stadium

The historic goal average at this venue is 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of the last 5 home games

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