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AFC Bournemouth – Brentford2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
AFC Bournemouth
1.77
Total xG
2.91
Brentford
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AFC Bournemouth | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 10% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Dango Ouattara on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Mikkel Damsgaard on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Mathias Jensen not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nathan Collins not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Michael Kayode on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Brentford's away defensive struggle: The visitors concede an average of 2.07 goals per game on the road
- Brentford's squad impact: Due to the absence of 5 key players including Dango Ouattara and Mikkel Damsgaard, only 76% of their usual squad strength is available
- Balanced possession: Both teams averaged almost identical possession shares of around 47% and 48% in their recent matches
Risks
- Stagnant home offense: Bournemouth's recent goal production has slowed down to 1.2 goals compared to their 1.8 season average
- Low offensive efficiency: Both teams averaged only 4.0 shots on target per game in their recent matches
- Defensive injuries: Brentford must cope without defenders B. Fredrick and S. van den Berg
All probabilities
Result
AFC Bournemouth51%
Draw26%
Brentford23%
Double chance
AFC Bournemouth or draw77%
Brentford or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Brentford: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)
- AFC Bournemouth: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)
- Brentford: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 · Brentford 4-2-3-1
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 8 A. Scott
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 2 A. Hickey
- 44 J. Schuster
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 18 M. Sangare
- 27 V. Janelt
- 19 J. Anthony
- 6 Y. Yarmoliuk
- 7 K. Schade
- 9 Thiago
Substitutes
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 18 B. Diakité
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 10 R. Christie
- 4 L. Cook
- 7 D. Brooks
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 27 A. Tóth
- 39 G. Nunes Fernandes Gomes
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 14 F. Carvalho
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 3 R. Henry
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 33 M. Kayode
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
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